Cleveland Indians: Corey Kluber’s potential road to Cooperstown

Corey Kluber is rapidly establishing himself as a legend in Cleveland Indians lore. Will the game of baseball regard him the same way when the time comes?

Nobody saw Corey Kluber coming.

He was a fourth-round draft pick of the San Diego Padres in 2007. Three years later, he was an afterthought in a triangular deadline deal that landed him in the farm system of the Cleveland Indians. In 2013, his first full year of MLB service, he fell behind guys like Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez in the Indians’ starting rotation.

Today, he is a two-time Cy Young winner who has drastically changed the complexion of an entire franchise, and is the undisputed ace of one of the best teams in the American League.

When a pitcher earns his second Cy Young Award, he enters the conversation about the best pitchers of his generation. Sure, there are inevitably aberrations (see Lincecum, Tim), but by and large, being named the best pitcher in one’s respective league on multiple occasions is a strong indication that he stands tall among most of his contemporaries.

And if he’s regarded as one of the best of his own generation, a subsequent question emerges: Where will he stand among the greatest of all time?

Of course, maybe it’s a little early to start discussing how Kluber will be viewed when he hangs ’em up. He’s 31 years old with a ton of baseball left to play. But the Indians haven’t sent a pitcher to Cooperstown since Addie Joss in 1978, and Kluber appears poised to be the Tribe’s next chance at ending that drought (among others…).

Nobody saw Kluber coming, but it can’t hurt to take a look at where he could be going.

Better late than never

One thing Kluber has working against him is that he was somewhat of a late bloomer. He didn’t become a permanent fixture in the Indians’ starting rotation until he was 27. By that time, similarly aged peers like Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer had already been competing in the big leagues for several years.

This isn’t an outright disadvantage for Kluber, but it does stand to limit him in cumulative statistical categories such as strikeouts, innings pitched and wins. It also slightly narrows his window for dominance in comparison to pitchers who have been in the league since their early 20s.

That said, if we are measuring Kluber against guys like Kershaw and Scherzer, his career numbers stack up pretty well. Below are a few noteworthy stats from the careers of all three, provided by Baseball-Reference.com.

• Clayton Kershaw – 2.36 ERA, 1.002 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 4.18 K/BB
• Max Scherzer – 3.30 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 4.02 K/BB
• Corey Kluber – 3.13 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 4.94 K/BB

Kershaw boasts a vastly superior career ERA (he hasn’t had an ERA above 2.91 since 2008), but other than that, all three have pretty similar numbers in some of the most meaningful pitching categories.

To be fair, as far as regular season pitching numbers are concerned, Kershaw is the absolute platinum standard of this generation. But if we are putting together Kluber’s Hall of Fame resume, we have to measure him against the best of his time. Right now, he measures up about as well as could be asked, albeit with fewer years of MLB service.

The long haul

Kluber’s first few seasons have him on the same trajectory as some of his elite contemporaries, but baseball’s sacred realm only opens its doors for those who can maintain that level for all or most of their careers.

For most, that is a tall task. Throwing upwards of 100 pitches every fifth day for 12 or 13 years tends to take a toll on a man. The wear and tear on shoulders, elbows and knees can really begin to weigh a pitcher down when he hits the back nine of his career.

Kluber’s pitching style should actually age well, however. Despite strikeout numbers reflective of some of the game’s better power pitchers, Kluber himself is not one. He relies on movement and changes in velocity as opposed to reaching back and blowing it by an opposing hitter.

If he loses a few miles per hour off his fastball as his career progresses, it won’t be as much of an obstacle for him as it would be for a pitcher who relies heavily on high heat.

He boasts a diverse arsenal, including a wicked sinker/two-seamer that appears to be headed directly at a left-handed batter’s hips before breaking over the inside corner at the last second. He mixes in a slider, cutter and change as well, but his secret weapon, which he began using significantly more often in 2017, is his curve.

The sum of all the parts of Kluber’s repertoire results in a guessing game played by hitters, and they lose more often than not. It’s incredibly difficult to sit on any one pitch with Kluber when his offerings include such a variety of different breaks and velocities.

As long as he maintains command of his wide array of pitches, he’s going to continue to be effective well into his late 30s.

Win the whole thing

Kluber may well put together a solid regular season resume that spans more than a decade. He’s got the work ethic, demeanor and talent to weather the long grind of a pitching career. But he could transform from dominant ace into all-time legend if he does what no Cleveland Indian has done since 1948: Win the World Series.

His harshest critics will contend that he hasn’t done his part in October thus far. That’s a fair argument as long as those same people are willing to admit the only games they remember are his last three.

The 2017 ALDS was an absolute disaster, no doubt. Nobody saw it coming, and outside of the vague mentions of back problems and arm angles, we may honestly never know what really happened to Kluber en route to nine earned runs in two short-lived starts.

In any case, one thing is certain: That wasn’t Corey Kluber.

His last start before that came in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. Among the many things people will remember about that game is that Kluber gave up four runs before exiting in the fifth. Much like the 2017 ALDS, it was difficult to watch, but it cannot be held against him.

When Kluber took the mound, he was facing a dangerous Cubs lineup for the third time in less than 10 days. It was his second consecutive start on short rest. The Indians fell short, but his readiness and effort are not up for questioning in that instance.

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Prior to that start, he had fanned 15 Cubs hitters and given up just one run in 12 innings. In his previous three starts against the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, he gave up two runs in 18.1 innings, with both runs coming in the same game.

The point is, do we really believe that the stoic and unflappable Corey Kluber is the kind of guy who just inexplicably comes apart at the seams when it matters most? Anyone who’s watched him knows that isn’t the case, and it’s unfathomable that a couple of forgettable postseason performances will develop into a regular occurrence.

October has by no means seen the last of Kluber and the Indians. They will be back, and Kluber has all the makings of a pitcher who can go on a legendary postseason run.

And whether it’s too early to discuss it or not, he also has the makings of a future inhabitant of the Baseball Hall of Fame. If he continues on his path, he may indeed have a bronze plaque in Cooperstown one day.

But if he leads the Tribe to their first World Series championship in 70 years? Well in that case, he’ll get a bronze statue outside Progressive Field.

Next: Top 10 wins from 2017

And Indians fans would be just fine with that.