A positional breakdown of the AL Central
We take a look at every position on the diamond for each AL Central team to decide which is the best heading into the 2017 season.
Two years ago, the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. The Detroit Tigers won four consecutive division titles from 2011-2014. The Chicago White Sox, although they did trade Chris Sale in the offseason, do not seem to be in on a complete rebuild. Lastly, the Minnesota Twins on paper do not seem to be as terrible as everyone makes them out to be.
One of the beautiful things about the Cleveland Indians is how well-rounded the roster looks going into the season, but in a division filled with aging superstars and youthful talent, who has the most well-rounded squad?
Here we will rank each position in the AL Central by looking at defense, offense, baserunning, and every other factor that goes into a baseball game.
Looking at division rivals always adds a hint of bias toward the hometown team, but this division is truly filled with some amazing talent. Always an afterthought to the AL East and West because of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers because of the mostly small markets included, the AL Central has been represented in four of the last five World Series.
So here we look at the best and the worst of the American League Central Division from first base to manager to overall team. Play ball!
First base/DH
- Carlos Santana/Edwin Encarnacion (CLE)
- Miguel Cabrera/Victor Martinez (DET)
- Eric Hosmer/Brandon Moss (KC)
- Jose Abreu/Anyone with a pulse (CWS)
- Joe Mauer/Kennys Vargas/Robbie Grossman (MIN)
There are two tiers in the Central with regards to first base and DH. In the top tier are the Indians and Tigers with four of the game’s best hitters. Below these four come something else completely.
Santana and Encarnacion slightly edge out Miggy and Martinez due to the inability of Martinez to run bases or play any position. Martinez is 38 yet somehow he hit .289 with 27 homers last year. Miggy had another monster year (.316 with 38 homers), yet Martinez has been labeled as the “Worst Baserunner Ever” by ESPN and anyone else who saw him run the last few seasons.
Santana plays a respectable first for his size and Encarnacion isn’t a horrible backup. With 42 homers and 127 RBI coming from Encarnacion, and Santana supplying 34 and 87, the Indians have the small edge. One has to believe Miggy and Victor regress because of their age right?
The lower tier of combos in the Central features one real duo in Hosmer and Moss. Hosmer hit .266 last season and actually had 104 RBI. Moss was pitiful in Cleveland and although he can hit homers, his .8 WAR really shows the impact he has on a team. Hosmer’s WAR was only 1.0, so together the two don’t even equal one of the top four guys on this list.
Jose Abreu is a fantastic hitter, but with no clear DH on the team, the White Sox will be looking for an answer all season. Maybe they let the “Hawk” Harrelson hit on his alarm clock giveaway night?
Joe Mauer is only 33, but it feels like he has been in the league for centuries. He had only 49 RBI last season in 134 games. He also had 11 homers. So subtract his own runs and that leaves 38 RBI that weren’t himself.
Grossman looks to be the starter at DH on Opening Day. He actually hit .280 in 99 games last season for the Twins. He can play the outfield (very poorly), but if he hits anywhere near .280, the Twins could be in a good position. Logic says this won’t happen, and the Indians released Grossman in 2016 and he’s a lifetime .254 hitter in 289 games.
Second base
- Brian Dozier (MIN)
- Ian Kinsler (DET)
- Jason Kipnis/Jose Ramirez (CLE)
- Tyler Saladino (CWS)
- Raúl Mondesí (KC)
Second base is stacked in the Central. Brian Dozier had 42 homers last season while playing average defense at second. His offensive WAR was 6.2 and he gradually has turned into a superstar.
He also showed a little speed with 18 stolen bases in 2016, and all his numbers have been climbing since he entered the league. His OPS was .886 and he only makes $6 million this coming season. He is a steal for the Twins at that price, and he will be looking for a large payday come his free agency in 2019.
Kinsler would be below Kipnis if Kipnis was starting the season healthy. Although Ramirez is amazing, he will not be the full-time second baseman, so Kinsler gets the upper hand. Kinsler had a 6.1 WAR last year, but he is turning 35 this year. He makes $11 million this season, but he may be one of the only players on the Tigers who is worth the money.
Best-case scenario, Kipnis is back late May or early June and repeats what he did last season. Worst case, Ramirez plays second and Yandy Diaz becomes the everyday third baseman. Either way, the infield should be okay. Kipnis had a great 2016, but all fans will remember is his foul ball in the 9th inning of Game 7 that the camera made look like a homer.
Saladino can play virtually anywhere and he hit .282 last season with 8 homers. He could be due for a breakout season with more regular playing time, and he always seems to hit against the Tribe. He is already 27, but he does seem to be an important piece of the White Sox succeeding at all this season.
Mondesí had a great spring, but he is only 21 so his hitting may take some time to get used to the MLB pitchers. Some Royals fans think he is just a mirage.
Shortstop
- Francisco Lindor (CLE)
- Tim Anderson (CWS)
- Jorge Polanco (MIN)
- Alcides Escobar (KC)
- Jose Iglesias (DET)
What hasn’t been said about the magnificence of Frankie Lindor? He can hit, hit for power, steal bases, hit in guys, hit sacrifices, play incredible defense, and he’s tons of fun to watch. Lindor had a pretty average spring after leaving in the middle for the World Baseball Classic, but at this point (and this is coming from someone who doubted him before he came up), how can you not think he will produce big numbers again?
Then a huge drop-off emerges.
Anderson is 23 and had a good year in 2016 as he hit .283 in 99 games. He signed a large contract with the White Sox that may come back to bite them. He makes $9.5 million in 2022 and only had 410 MLB at-bats. He’s good, but not yet proven.
Polanco is also 23 and hit almost the same as Anderson (.282). He had 27 RBI in 69 games, and these go right along with his minor league stats. He hasn’t done much for the MLB club yet, but because of his potential, he comes in third here.
Escobar won a Gold Glove, was an All-Star and received a World Series ring in 2015. In 2016, his OPS was .642 and his OBP was .292. He has been in the league since 2008, and he is a .262 hitter. He averages 51 RBI per 162 games, and he doesn’t add much to a lineup or defense.
Iglesias had 32 RBI in 137 games last season. He had an OPS of .643. Wow. He was an All-Star in 2015, but he has 86 RBI in his MLB career, which spans 401 games. He is able to make routine plays, but he is nowhere near the top of the MLB anymore.
Third base
- Todd Frazier (CWS)
- Nick Castellanos (DET)
- Jose Ramirez/Yandy Diaz (CLE)
- Mike Moustakas (KC)
- Miguel Sano (MIN)
This position was truly strange to judge. On one hand, if Ramirez was playing third instead of second to start the season, the Indians would definitely have the edge in this category, but with Yandy Diaz being the new guy as Kipnis recovers, who knows what will happen.
Todd Frazier is really only number one on this list because of his power numbers. 40 homers with 98 RBI for a bad team last season is astounding. He had a pretty good year mending the hot corner, but he needs to be more consistent at the plate to really be worth his salary. He had a .225 average last season, so this list could definitely change if he can’t sustain his power.
Castellanos comes in second on this list because of his relative consistency since he entered the league. A lifetime .265 hitter, he has shown that he can hit for power (18 homers last season). He isn’t great on defense (-0.8 defensive WAR last year), but compared to Moustakas and Sano, he is…better?
The Indians have a great hitter in Diaz, but in a perfect world, Ramirez would be at third. Diaz isn’t truly a third baseman (or any position), but he beat out defensive master Giovanny Urshela for the job. But if all the hype from the Twitter fans is true, he could be an All-Star by 2018.
Moustakas is a lifetime .247 hitter who plays an average third. He hit .240 last season in limited time, and he seems to have peaked with his 2015 playoff performance in the World Series. He will not be a major factor in the Central.
Sano hit .236 last season and had 25 homers, but he was a terrible defender and struck out a lot. Prove this article wrong, but there’s not much to talk about here.
Catcher
- Salvador Perez (KC)
- James McCann (DET)
- Yan Gomes (CLE)
- Omar Narvaez (CWS)
- Jason Castro (MIN)
This position is pathetic. Perez is a really good catcher, but besides that, the division is lacking.
Perez is a World Series MVP, four-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner, and a Silver Slugger. He isn’t amazing at the plate (.247 in 2016), but he gets the job done. Plus, his defense is incredible to watch as he is 6-foot-3 but moves around with incredible agility. He is far and away the best catcher in the division.
McCann is above Gomes because…he’s younger? There really is no difference as McCann hit .221 last season while Gomes hit .167 and played better defense. Both are identical in many statistics, but because McCann has more time to progress, he gets the edge and the number two spot on the list.
If Gomes goes back to his Silver Slugging ways, he could easily be number two (or one), but right now, he can’t be considered near the top.
Narvaez hit .267 last season, but he only has played in 34 MLB games. He could rise up these horrid rankings, but he needs a full season under his belt. He is 25, so the clock has just started to tick slowly.
Castro hit .210 and .211 the last two seasons. He had 11 homers in each and 31 and 32 RBI. This seems to be his peak output, so don’t expect much of a change in 2016.
In all, this was a terrible group of guys, but the top three are great signal callers and can help their teams pitchers, which adds to their value. But still, this was a horrible ranking.
Outfield
- Byron Buxton/Eddie Rosario/Max Kepler (MIN)
- Justin Upton/Tyler Collins/JaCoby Jones/J.D. Martinez/Mikie Mahtook (DET)
- Austin Jackson/Tyler Naquin/Lonnie Chisenhall/Michael Brantley/Brandon Guyer/Abraham Almonte (CLE)
- Melky Cabrera/ Avisail Garcia/Jacob May (CWS)
- Lorenzo Cain/Alex Gordon/Paulo Orlando/Jorge Soler (KC)
Out of all these guys, who would you want to start a team with? It has to be the Twins three youngsters. Rosario hit .269 last season in 92 games, while Kepler made a case for Rookie of the Year. Buxton rounds out the bunch even though his average is well below average (.225 in 2016).
They are all young and still haven’t proved much, but a full season of them in the outfield will be amazing to watch. They play good defense and will be the core of what makes the Twins into a contender or pretender in the years to come.
The Tigers just beat out the Indians in this category because of Upton’s last few months. If he can continue his production, the Tigers might not regret that contract as much as the entire city of Detroit does. If he can hit somewhere near .260 with 30 homers, he will help bolster an aging lineup.
Martinez is nursing a foot injury, but the rest of the outfield core should be able to hold down the fort until he returns. When he does return, he will add another great hitter to the lineup. Remember, he hit 38 homers in 2015. One cause for concern could be his -2.7 defense WAR last season.
The Indians are third because who knows who is healthy or ready for the season? Jackson looks good, but he is coming off an injury. Same for Brantley. Now, Chisenhall is hurt. Naquin is again crushing the ball in the spring, but everyone keeps saying “he will regress.”
With the uncertainty day-to-day for the Indians outfield and the lack of good defenders, it is hard to say how well the platooning will work without Rajai Davis.
Melky Cabrera always puts up great numbers (.296 with an OPS of .800 in 2016), but May and Garcia don’t offer the same comfort. May is 25 and hasn’t played an MLB game, and Garcia hit .245 last year. May has some speed, but until he plays a few months in the majors, there isn’t much to say. This is taking into account his .266 batting average in AAA.
The Royals should probably be higher on this list, but the injury to Jorge Soler and the unknown status of Lorenzo Cain drops them down. Alex Gordon never lived up to the hype and hit a dismissal .220 last year. Brandon Moss will see some time in the outfield throughout the year, so don’t expect much more in the realm of defense.
In all, this is a jumbled mess for Kansas City. Plus, even if Soler returns to full health, he hit .238 last season…not a great boost.
Starting Pitchers
- Indians
- Tigers
- Royals
- White Sox
- Twins
The Indians have the best starters in the Central, and maybe in all of baseball, but it actually is closer than one may think.
The Tribe has Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, and Trevor Bauer on the hill each day, so there is little to worry about when the game starts. If everyone can stay healthy, there really isn’t a weak link in the entire group.
Once again, Tomlin is being undervalued in most predictions for the Tribe, but he had a fantastic year (minus one month) and pitched great in the postseason. Tomlin and Bauer are the keys to the rotation, and the skills of the top three are already known. If Tomlin can continue his success and Bauer can find a way to be somewhat consistent, the team will get a major boost.
The loss of Cody Anderson for the year actually hurts the Indians more than anyone wants to admit. His 2015 performance was phenomenal and having him as an emergency spot starter would be great. The Indians will again look to Mike Clevinger and Ryan Merritt in times of need.
The Tigers rotation is much better than fans in Cleveland want to admit. Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmerman, and Michael Fulmer make a fabulous top three. Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd round out the starters as Anibal Sanchez was moved to the pen.
Zimmerman had a terrible year last season, posting a 4.87 ERA in 19 games and has an 8.74 spring ERA as of March 31. He’s trying to get and stay healthy, but the real chance for a Tigers take-over of the Central is Fulmer.
Fulmer is only 24, yet he went 11-7 last season with a 3.06 ERA and 1.119 WHIP. He could very easily take over this team by midseason and help to begin a new era of Tigers baseball.
The Royals rotation changed dramatically with the passing of one of the game’s exciting young pitcher, Yordano Ventura. Despite this, the Royals still should be okay for the first half of the season as Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy have been very effective this spring.
Jason Hammel is a great pickup for the club as he had an ERA of 3.83 and won 15 games last season with the Cubs. Jason Vargas is coming off Tommy John surgery but looks strong and Nate Karns has been okay this spring, but his 5.15 ERA from last year is scary.
The White Sox traded away Chris Sale and in one move depleted their rotation. They do still have Jose Quintana who is one of the game’s best young arms. James Shields went 6-19 last year. 6 and 19. Miguel Gonzalez and Derek Holland help “round out?” this rotation.
Without Quintana, this team is definitely at the bottom of this list. With a trade rumor looming every day, it is only a matter of time before the White Sox have the worst rotation in baseball.
The Twins rotation is where the team falls apart. Veterans Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes anchor a rotation that features Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, and Adalberto Mejia. Santana went 7-11 last season but posted an ERA of 3.38 and looks in good form yet again.
Hughes went 1-7 in 2016 with a 5.95 ERA (You read that correctly). Gibson went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA (again, you read that correctly). Santiago went 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA (which looks good in comparison). Mejia only pitched two innings last season, but his 7.71 ERA is worth a mention.
There isn’t much to get excited about in Minnesota when looking at starters.
Bullpen
- Indians
- Royals
- White Sox
- Tigers
- Twins
The Indians have the best bullpen in baseball. Yes, that is a bold statement, but look at the facts. Andrew Miller is able to pitch whenever the team needs him because Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Dan Otero, and newly-acquired Boone Logan are all available.
Shaw pitched in 75 games last season and loves to be called upon. Allen had 32 saves and seems to just get better every season. With the bullpen, the Indians do not go on to the World Series, and this will again be the case.
Logan adds a LOOGY that the Indians desperately needed and the bullpen looks even three times as good as the “Mafia” of old. Plus, Miller is some sort of alien-being with a perfect arm.
The Royals bullpen isn’t great with Wade Davis gone, but Kelvin Herrera had a 2.75 ERA last season and will be the main guy in the pen for Kansas City. Travis Wood lost a rotation spot and will also be a major part of the bullpen.
Joakim Soria had a rough 2016 (4.05 ERA), but with Herrera throwing close to 100 mph, the Royals don’t have much to worry about. Aging Peter Moylan is one of the final pieces of their team, and he has been the model of consistent good pitching for the last ten years.
The White Sox may not have many good starters, but with David Robertson in the closer role, they have a fairly good bullpen. The last three years, he has had 39, 34, and 37 saves. There have been some trade rumors as the rebuild continues to unfold, but nothing concrete has taken place.
Nate Jones, fresh off a World Baseball Classic win is a great set-up man to complement Robertson. Dan Jennings has also put together a good five years of service (2.08 ERA last season). This could be a good bullpen, but with the impending rebuild, one domino falling could lead to a complete disaster.
Related: Breaking down the bullpen
Shane Green and Anibal Sanchez had ERA’s close to 6 last season. While Francisco Rodriguez did had 44 saves in 2016, this bullpen is a mess. Set-up man Alex Wilson did have a 2.96 ERA in 2016, but other than that, the team is just guessing who will be in the bullpen for most of the season.
With such a great starting rotation, getting to the bullpen has been (and will continue to be) the way to beat the Tigers.
Minnesota closer Glen Perkins is still rehabbing as Brandon Kintzler looks to save games and replicate his 3.15 ERA from 2016. As for the rest of the Minnesota bullpen, the team will keep Justin Haley, a Rule 5 pick this season, on the roster.
Haley is 25 and has barely played in AAA, so that shows the position the Twins are in. This comes after he posted a 4.96 ERA in 16.1 innings this spring. The Twins are clearly still looking for answers on the mound.
Manager
- Terry Francona (CLE)
- Ned Yost (KC)
- Paul Molitor (MIN)
- Rick Renteria (CWS)
- Brad Ausmus (DET)
Francona was an easy choice in this category. With two World Series titles in Boston and two Manager of the Year awards while in Cleveland, the Indians skipper was a sight for sore eyes after years of Manny Acta and Eric Wedge. He puts a lot of trust in his team (some might say too much), but he seems to know what he is doing 95 percent of the time.
His lifetime winning percentage as a manager is .533 in the regular season and .623 in the playoffs. His use of Andrew Miller, Carlos Santana, and Bryan Shaw (and others) has been praised and ridiculed, but he has the wins to back his moves up.
Yost has a .710 winning percentage in the postseason to go along with a World Series as a coach and as a manager. He’s a large reason the Royals were able to go to the World Series in consecutive years.
Molitor was an amazing player and hasn’t been the best manager, but with an ever-changing squad the last few years, it will be interesting to see how he handles a more set lineup.
Renteria managed the Cubs to a 73-89 record in 2014, so his track record isn’t great, but he will bring a new voice to the White Sox, so only time will tell if he can handle the rebuild.
Ausmus had one of the best teams in baseball and was swept in the 2014 playoffs. He has a high-paid and highly talented team, but they continue to underperform. Some of it has to be on the manager’s shoulders. (Especially one who continued to start Aníbal Sánchez until this season).
Final Say
- Indians
- Tigers
- Twins
- Royals
- White Sox
It would be easy to just put the Indians, Tigers, and Royals on top of the division with the White Sox and Twins well below, but this Royals squad is not the same as their magical two-year run, and the Twins may actually be better than most people expect.
In the end, the Indians will hover somewhere between 91 and 96 wins. They will make it to the playoffs almost completely healthy due to their great record and who knows what comes after that.
The Tigers will win about 87 and just miss the Wild Card. Fulmer will surprise everyone by becoming the number one starter by the season’s end while the team trades away other major pieces and begins a large rebuild.
The Twins will surprise most people by pulling together a semi-respectable pitching staff to go along with a pretty solid lineup and field. They will finish right near 81-81, but the future will look even brighter. Plus, Dozier hits 50 homers.
The Royals will prove to be a shell of their old teams and the comeback of Moustakas will be nothing special. After some deals at the deadline, they will finish 79-83 in what will be the start of another long, painful rebuild.
The White Sox will come out of the gate cold and trade Quintana to the highest bidder. They will finish a dismal 69-93 and the Southside will look towards the Cubs in envy yet again.
In the end, the division is still the Indians’ to lose. No real competition exists in the Central because of how versatile the Indians have become.
Next: Previewing the starting rotation
Get ready for another postseason run, Cleveland. And thank the rest of the Central Division for helping.