Cleveland Indians 2017 top prospects: No. 2, Brady Aiken

For the second year in a row, left-hander Brady Aiken is our top pitcher and moves up one spot to number 2 on our Cleveland Indians 2017 top prospect countdown.

Who is Brady Aiken?

After coming in at number three on last year’s list, Brady Aiken moves up one spot in 2017 and remains the top pitcher in the Cleveland Indians’ system.

The California native was originally drafted first overall in the 2014 draft by the Houston Astros, but he fell the to Tribe at 17th overall in 2015 after a year at the IMG Academy in Florida. The 20-year-old left-hander stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 205 pounds.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2015 and missing the entire year, the Cleveland Indians were then very conservative with Aiken in 2016, starting him off in the Arizona Rookie League in June. However, he dominated the level in the short time he was there and found himself in Short-Season Mahoning Valley to end the season.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Aiken was the top pick in the 2014 draft for a reason. Coming out of high school his fastball could reach 97 mph and he had a curveball that was one of the best in the high school ranks. The injury has definitely slowed things down for him, as the fastball was only sitting 88-92 and barely hitting 94 in 2016, though that’s hardly a cause for concern (at this point at least).

As he continues to build strength in the arm the velocity should (hopefully) continue to return. His curveball looked the part of an ace in 2016 while his changeup remains a work in progress, but a useful pitch.

His control was off in 2016, which like the fastball velocity is understandable given his return from surgery. He walked nearly five batters per nine innings in Arizona but improved to just above three with the Scrappers.

He got rave reviews for his poise and control coming out of high school and considering that control is typically the last thing to return for someone recovering from Tommy John, there’s no reason for concern with Aiken here either.

Related: No. 3, Triston McKenzie

The biggest issue with Aiken so far has obviously been the injury and lack of work. He threw 13 pitches in 2015 (at the IMG Academy) and has just 46 1/3 innings as a professional. Tommy John surgery has come a long way but it’s still not a guarantee. However, I’ve said for years he reminds me a bit of a left-handed Lucas Giolito.

Both players were arguably the best 18-year-old pitchers in the game when they had Tommy John surgery. Giolito started off slow but eventually regained his status as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Aiken has similar size and stuff to Giolito and the youth to still recover from the major arm injury.

Where does he go from here?

The biggest key for Aiken in 2017 is health and getting in more work. He made good strides this past year, throwing his first professional pitches and looking solid in the lower levels. The Indians likely will try to get him started in full-season ball finally in 2017, with him likely starting at Class-A Lake County. It’ll be a big test for him as it’s been years since he’s had a full complete season.

Aiken remains the pitcher with the highest ceiling in the Cleveland Indians’ system, which is why he remains our top pitching prospect. There’s obviously still legit concerns that he may never get back to the levels he was out before surgery, but if he comes even close to it he’s a middle of the rotation big league starter.

Next: 5 most important players in 2017

If he does reach his ceiling, he’s a top of the rotation ace who is competing for Cy Young awards on a yearly basis in the mold of a Cliff Lee. He’s still years away from seeing Cleveland, with 2020 probably the realistic scenario but with the depth the Indians have in the upper levels the Indians can afford to play things safe with Aiken.