Michael Brantley and the $12 million question

The Cleveland Indians will have to decide next offseason if they want to pick up Michael Brantley’s player option for 2018. That decision rides on what happens this season.

The latest news on Michael Brantley has been promising. He’s taking batting practice and slowly ramping up his baseball activity. The progress is deliberate, but steady. Hopefully before long we’ll see him back in exhibition game action, and eventually back on a major league field.

That paragraph describes Brantley’s 2017 recovery from shoulder surgery. It also describes his 2016 recovery from shoulder surgery. As much as everyone hopes and wishes for Brantley to make a full recovery and return to form as an All-Star outfielder, reality may not be so kind.

The Cleveland Indians will have an interesting question next offseason. The team holds a $12 million club option on Brantley for the 2018 season. In the span of about 18 months, that option went from a no-brainer to a big ‘ole question mark.

So what should the Indians do? Obviously any answer is dependent on what Brantley does this season. But right now, on March 10, there are three overarching outcomes that will guide the team’s decision on Brantley’s option.

Michael Brantley returns not long after the start of the season and resembles the player he was from 2014-2015.

This is the easiest of the three situations for the Indians. If Brantley returns a month or so into the season and comes close to matching the .310/.379/.480 line he posted in 2015, the Indians will happily pick up his 2018 option. Even if Brantley performs closer to his 2013 stat line of .284/.332/.396 the Indians will pick up his option.

How likely is it that things play out this way? If the Indians were confident in this outcome they would not be so guarded when it comes to discussing Brantley’s status. The truth is no one—not the Indians, not Brantley, not anyone—knows what will happen. Which brings us to outcome number two:

Michael Brantley returns roughly halfway through the season or later and is a much-diminished version of his former self.

The big concern with Brantley right now has to be whether he even makes it back onto a big league field, full stop. After that, the question is, if he does make it back, what kind of hitter will he be?

Shoulders are tricky. Making it back onto the field after a major shoulder injury is difficult; making it back to pre-injury level of performance even moreso. Let’s say that Brantley makes it back to the field, just as he did in 2016. There’s still the risk that he continues to experience discomfort after days he plays. There’s still the risk that his swing is restricted by pain or discomfort.

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Outcome number two presents the toughest circumstance for the Indians. If Brantley comes back and hits .231/.279/.282, his line during his 11-game stint in 2016, the Indians will have hardly any more insight into whether they should pick up his option. In that case, maybe a third offseason of rest and rehab would set Brantley right. It’s equally possible that Brantley’s shoulder will prevent him from ever being anything more than a replacement level option.

MLB teams pay roughly $8 million per win in free agency. So it wouldn’t take a lot for Brantley to be “worth” $12 million in 2018. Even so, if Brantley comes back but can’t show he’s a viable major leaguer, would the Indians be willing to make that bet? That question brings us to outcome number three:

Michael Brantley does not play a game in 2017.

This outcome seems far-fetched right now, but it would have been far-fetched to think on March 10, 2016 that Brantley would only play 11 games in 2016.

Just as outcome number one makes the decision to pick up Brantley’s option an easy one, so too does outcome number three, just in the opposite direction. It would be difficult for the Indians to justify sinking another $12 million into a player who has essentially missed two seasons.

It’s difficult to avoid comparing Brantley’s situation with that of former Tribe great Grady Sizemore. During the 2011 offseason, the Indians held a $9 million option on Sizemore, who was coming off of two bad seasons and multiple knee surgeries. The Indians declined his option, but then re-signed Sizemore to a one-year, $5 million dollar deal with another $4 million in incentives.

It didn’t turn out well. In 71 games, Sizemore slashed .224/.285/.422 with diminished defense in center. He was done as a major leaguer save for a couple cameo seasons in 2014 and 2015. It’s impossible not to see the parallels.

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Michael Brantley was nothing short of a star from 2014 to 2015. After a lost season in 2016, any and every possible outcome is on the table in 2017. Everyone hopes that the All-Star version of Michael Brantley will come back this season and make picking up his club option a no-brainer. But hope isn’t a plan.