Cleveland Indians: Breaking down the AL Central race in 2017

Many experts think that the Cleveland Indians have this year’s AL Central crown in the bag. But will they have more competition than expected?

Before last season, it had been awhile since Cleveland Indians fans saw their Tribe atop the American League Central. Fans were beginning to grow impatient, wondering when Cleveland’s next division title would come.

With that division title finally returning to Cleveland, expectations have only increased. However, fan expectations aren’t the only ones increasing. Baseball experts around the league are not only predicting the Tribe to repeat as division champions, but they expect them to dominate along the way.

All signs point to Cleveland achieving enormous amounts of success during the 2017 season. The Indians made key acquisitions in the offseason, adding an All-Star as well as increasing their already dominant bullpen.

Along with acquiring talent, the Indians have perhaps more importantly acquired health. Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Yan Gomes are expected to be ready for the start of the regular season.

Michael Brantley’s status for Opening Day remains uncertain, and although he is progressing nicely, Terry Francona wants to ease Brantley back into the mix, preventing further injury to the Indians outfielder.

But what about the other teams in the Central?

The Detroit Tigers, who many deemed as under-achievers in their 2016 campaign, return all their main pieces. The Kansas City Royals are an interesting team. If they perform well at the beginning of the year, expect them to contend for the division. If they start out slow, they could try to unload all of their upcoming free agents before they walk.

The Minnesota Twins were a dumpster fire last year winning only 59 games, their lowest win total since 1956. The Chicago White Sox are in an obvious rebuilding mode, trading key pieces like Chris Sale for highly ranked prospects.

Let’s take a closer look at each team, and predict the AL Central division standings after game 162.

5. Chicago White Sox (68-94) – Over/Under Win Total: 73.5

Sell. Sell. Sell. The Chicago White Sox made it very clear when they dealt Chris Sale to the Red Sox that it’s time to rebuild, yet again. The White Sox received a potential star in Yoan Moncada, who mlb.com ranks as the number two prospect in the MLB.

Along with Moncada, Chicago also landed a top-five right-handed pitching prospect in Michael Kopech. It is expected that these prospects are a while away from their big league call-ups, but scouts are raving about the day that finally comes.

Likewise with Sale, the White Sox made a hard push to trade left-handed starter Jose Quintana. Ultimately, Chicago has yet to be satisfied by an offer. However, if Chicago’s season suffers an abysmal start, don’t be surprised if the asking price for Quintana decreases.

Quintana isn’t the only potential player on the move, should the White Sox struggle out of the gate. Todd Frazier, as well as Melky Cabrera, will become free agents after the 2017 season. If the White Sox fear neither will re-sign with the team, or they have no interest in re-signing themselves, a potential trade is very much a possibility.

All in all, the White Sox just don’t have the talent to compete in this division. With a depleted pitching staff, as a well as a underproducing offense, White Sox fans are in for a tough season of baseball.

4. Minnesota Twins (76-86) – Over/Under Win Total: 70.5

Did the Twins disappoint a lot of people in 2016? Absolutely. The offense finished in the middle of the pack, but their pitching was non-existent, ranking 29th in the MLB. The defense didn’t do them any favors either, making 126 errors, good for 29th in the league as well. 

It wasn’t all bad for the Twins in 2016. All-Star second baseman Brian Dozier blasted 42 home runs, tied for the seventh-most in a single season in Twins history. Rookie Max Kepler added 18 of his own home runs in just 113 games.

During the offseason, the Twins acquired veteran defensive backstop Jason Castro through free agency. Although Castro doesn’t have much to offer with his bat, his defensive/game-calling ability should bolster this young Minnesota pitching staff.

A bright spot for the Twins is their ability to hit for power. They hit 200 home runs in 2016, good for second in the AL Central. But there won’t be enough power in the lineup to compensate for their underwhelming pitching staff, as well as their disappointing defense.

Minnesota isn’t a team that will rattle off 93 wins on their way to a division title. However, this team could surprise people, not necessarily because of how well they are playing, but rather because they are staying afloat.

3. Kansas City Royals (84-78) – Over/Under Win Total: 80.5

The Kansas City Royals are a mystery. They would like to give their core group of guys one more chance at a title run, but won’t hesitate to sell near the trade deadline if things are going south.

During the offseason, closer Wade Davis was traded to the Cubs for outfielder Jorge Soler. Although many viewed this trade as lopsided in favor of the Cubs, the Royals were able to save significant money. It is likely that this same money be used during next season’s free agency, when a large amount of their key contracts expire.

If healthy, this Royals team can be a contender in the division. Kansas City was doomed by the injury bug in 2016. They finished .500 on the year, experiencing hot and cold streaks throughout the season.

In order for the Royals emulate their 2015 success levels, the pitching will need to improve. Kansas City finished 10th in the American League in team ERA, dropping seven spots from their 2015 campaign. Although pitching isn’t the only story, it’s the biggest one for this team.

This team could  actually surprise people and win the AL Central, something they’ve only done once since the division’s realignment in 1994. However, everything would have to align perfectly, something that I just don’t see happening.

2. Detroit Tigers (89-73) – Over/Under Win Total: 85.5

In recent years, the Detroit Tigers have always been the team giving the Tribe fits. That all changed last year, as the Indians took the season series 14-4. Despite how many people talk about the Tigers last year, they did manage to win 86 games.

Justin Verlander placed second in the Cy Young voting behind Rick Porcello, and rising star Michael Fulmer took home Rookie of the Year honors, beating out Gary Sanchez and Tyler Naquin.

Justin Upton had a down year overall, but got hot near the end, hitting .292 in September/October. In order for the Tigers to leap past the Indians, Upton will need to produce the numbers that Detroit management expected before signing him.

Detroit finished 11th out of 15 teams in ERA, a number that would have been much higher without the incredible individual performances of Verlander and Fulmer. Yes the Tigers can score runs, but that will carry little meaning if the pitching performs as poorly as it did in 2016.

However, this team does still have Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and many other proven big-leaguers. Detroit will give the Indians a run for their money, attempting to avoid humiliation by the Tribe for the second straight year.

The Tigers are determined to return to the top of the AL Central, a place they are all too familiar with. If Cleveland isn’t careful, they could be starting in the Wild Card round, rather than the ALDS.

1. Cleveland Indians (92-70) – Over/Under Win Total: 92.5

Yes, I still have Cleveland as the favorite to repeat as Central division champions. However, I don’t see them duplicating last year’s amount of success against the Tigers. The season series will be much closer, but not close enough to crown Detroit.

The Indians did a lot of good this offseason. Bringing in free agent talent is nice, but receiving a clean bill of health from four of your best players is just as satisfying. There are still some questions marks regarding the health of Michael Brantley, but those questions will soon be answered.

In 2016, the Indians pitching staff achieved a tremendous amount of success. They finished the year seventh in team ERA, and fifth in BAA. The starting rotation wasn’t the only strength of the Indians pitching staff. In fact, the Tribe’s bullpen had the second-best ERA in the AL, only behind the Baltimore Orioles.

The success of the pitching staff carried over into the postseason, dominating opponents on the way to the World Series. As Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar return to the rotation, look for that dominance to increase.

Let’s not forget about Cleveland’s offense, an offense that hit .262 as a team, good for fifth-best in the MLB. This offense now adds a major threat in All-Star Edwin Encarnacion, replacing the home run hitting duties of now Rangers first baseman Mike Napoli.

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The Tribe will likely repeat as Central division champs. However, many people already have the Indians penciled in, describing the division title as a “sure thing”.  In my opinion, this division is far from locked up. If Cleveland goes into the season with the mindset that it is, they could be in for a rude awakening.