Cleveland Indians: 5 Pitchers With Something to Prove in 2017

Cleveland Indians’ pitchers left a lot to be desired in 2016 after a freak accident, untimely injuries, and unmet potential. 2017 might be different.

Trevor Bauer. Josh Tomlin. Carlos Carrasco. Danny Salazar. Zach McAllister. These are the five pitchers with the most to prove in 2017 after ending 2016 on a relatively sour note.

Bauer cut his finger. Tomlin ran out of gas. Injuries got to Carrasco and Salazar. And McAllister was normal Zach, shrinking away when given the big opportunity. Each of these pitchers also have financial incentives that could be motivating factors in 2017 as well.

Bauer and Salazar have added incentive, considering they are both still relatively young and have their primes ahead of them. They should be looking for big four or five-year contracts exceeding $50 million or more depending on performance.

Bauer is on a very reasonable $3.55 million contract for 2017 and is eligible for arbitration next year. Tomlin signed a team-friendly $5.5 million deal with a club option for 2018, with a lot of incentives.

Carrasco is under contract through 2020, making pennies for the kind of performances he has given the last few years, with club options in 2019 and 2020. Salazar is eligible for arbitration in 2018 as well, so he has major incentive to do well in this contract year.

Finally, McAllister is also eligible for arbitration in 2018. Outside of Carrasco, who is easily one of the biggest trade chips that the Indians have due to his team-friendly contract, each of these four pitchers have strong financial incentive to have big 2017s as well.

Bauer pitched part of the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series. He got two outs, striking out one. This was quite the comeback after going 0 for 2 in Games 2 and 5. Bauer managed his walks, and he struck out nine  in just over seven innings of work, but he still threw a ton of pitches and allowed way too many runs.

Bauer is the kind of guy who everyone knows has the potential to be a number one or number two starter, but he yet to breach that air. Is 2017 the year? Is Bauer’s playoff experience enough to push him over the edge?

Bauer is a hard-throwing, mechanically-weird starter who gets in his head more than anyone else. He can get up to 95 mph easily, and his fastball moves around more than most people. How can Bauer get over the hump? What can he possibly do?

He needs to listen. He has learned from Kluber, and he could use a bit of competition from Carrasco and Salazar as the Tribe rounds out the best top-4 in the bigs. Bauer is the epitome of high-ceiling, and 2017 could be the year that he reaches his ceiling.

Josh Tomlin is another guy with a lot to prove, and he has a bit of split personality.

Tomlin had a 3.51 ERA in the first half of 2016 and 5.59 ERA in the second half. In 2015, he had just over a 3.00 ERA in the second half (the only half in the bigs).

In 2014, he had a similar first half/second half jump where his second half ERA was two points higher than the first half. Is this something Tomlin can overcome? Or is this something that the Indians need to take into account?

Tomlin clearly cannot be better than a fifth starter over an entire season. But, with the proper amount of rest, Tomlin can be effective, very effective. It is unlikely that a 32-year old who has a career 4.50 ERA is going to all of a sudden be a top-tier starter.

Terry Francona is a smart guy, and he has a lot of options if he wants to get the most out of Tomlin. There’s a few possibilities that include grooming Mike Clevinger to be the heir-apparent fifth (or fourth?) starter by alternating Clevinger and Tomlin in the rotation and bullpen.

There is also the possibility of shutting Tomlin down for a while or moving him to the bullpen and running through four starters when the schedule allows it. No harm in skipping Tomlin’s start when we can. Clevinger can spot start in double-headers and other unusual situations, and Tomlin can get the rest he needs to be that sub-4.00 ERA guy in the back of the rotation.

Carlos Carrasco is a number one starter. There is no doubt about it. He has had some problems, though. He turns 30 this year, and he sort of reminds you of Kluber in the sense of getting into his prime in his age-30 season.

Carrasco has had some serious injuries over his career, and he really did not hit his stride as a starter until 2014. He has been a full-time starter for two years, and he has put in two amazing years. In 2015, he struck out over 200 batters for the first time. In 2016, he missed 200 strikeouts due to his hand injury.

Carrasco had three games of over 10 strikeouts in 2016, and he had a 15-strikeout gem (one of the highest game scores of all time) in an outing in late 2015. He has talent. He has ability. Can he stay healthy?

There is no doubt in my mind (or probably anyone in Cleveland) that the Tribe would have won the World Series in 2016 if Carrasco started in the playoffs. How horrible must that make him feel? Of course, the injury was not his fault, but at what point does he not think to himself “I really need to step it up in 2017.” Hopefully, that thought process translates into a lights out 2017 and a dominant year for Carrasco.

Danny Salazar is like Trevor Bauer in many ways, except he’s had a less-rocky start to his career. He’s only 27, and he pitched in his first playoff game as a rookie in 2013. Do you remember Salazar against David Price in the first-ever AL Wild Card game?

Salazar more than held his own as a 23-year old, hard-throwing right-hander who barely had any starts under his belt. It was the kind of “coming out” party that actually reminded me a lot of David Price‘s own coming out party when he closed out the Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS in 2008. Salazar is another possible number one or number two starter, currently slotted as the number three guy in the Indians’ rotation.

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He is another injury-prone guy who had a dominant first half in 2016 and bad second half, leading to minimal starts, culminating in an injury. It will be interesting to see how he manages his psyche given that Francona held him out as a starter in the World Series after all reports indicated he was healthy and ready to go. Would the Tribe have done better if Salazar started Game 6 instead of Tomlin?

Tomlin was clearly out of gas by then, and everyone knew it was going to be a bullpen game. Why not throw Salazar in for 2-3 innings and see what he could do? Then, Tomlin could come in as long relief. No one will know what Francona was thinking, but Salazar has a lot to prove in 2017 so he knows that he will be used in the playoffs as a starter.

Finally, Zach McAllister. What a strange career he has had. He has been with the Tribe since 2011, coming up as a power starter who can throw 96+ with decent command. He is huge, measuring about 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds. His career? It has not panned out as well as the Tribe had hoped.

He had a bright 2013, going 9-9 in 24 starts with a 3.75 ERA. That is good for a backend starter role. What happened since? After being ineffective in 2014, the Indians move him to the bullpen, where he has been decent, but not great. He’s hung around the big league club as a long reliever or as a one-out power guy. He’s never whiffed anything past the seventh innings, as he has not shown he can handle those types of situations.

He is a middle-inning reliever at this point in his career, but why? He throws hard, he’s huge, and he has been effective in the past. Over the last two seasons, he’s pitched in 61 and 53 games with a low-3 ERA and a good BB/9 and K/9. What is his potential?

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He basically imploded in the playoffs, allowing three runs in three innings. He was not ready for the big stage. I could see McAllister getting one more shot at the rotation if things break his way.  If he does not, he needs pitch in 60 games, maintain an under 3.00 ERA and a 9+ K/9. He also needs to show up in high leverage situations. He has potential, and he needs to meet it. Maybe in 2017, he will.