Cleveland Indians: Breaking Down the Pitching Matchup with the Cubs

Game Three: Josh Tomlin vs. Kyle Hendricks

Baseball has largely become a game of triple-digit fastballs and brute force on the mound as opposed to the actual gamesmanship of pitching. In that way, a Tomlin-Hendricks matchup in Game Three could be something of a throwback, as neither will blow anyone away, but both are an expert in the nuances of commanding their pitches, changing speeds, and keeping hitters off-balance.

Tomlin has been one of the unsung heroes of the Indians’ playoff run, having allowed just three runs in two starts, both of them wins, covering 10.2 innings. He has struck out 10 to just three walks, limiting opponents to a .184 clip at the plate despite averaging less than 90 miles per hour on his fastball.

Where the 32-year old Texan was particularly effective against Boston and Toronto was in disrupting hitters’ timing with a steady diet of breaking balls. Whereas he threw his curveball roughly 15 percent of the time during the regular season, that usage has jumped to nearly 40 percent in the postseason.

Whether that strategy will be effective against Chicago will be something to watch. The Cubs ranked No. 11 in the National League during the regular season in the volume of curveballs seen, and No. 9 in Fangraphs’ weighted curveball runs, a metric used to measure how well hitters performed against the pitch.

While wCB is limited in its predictive power and can be victim to pitch misclassification, it seems to point to the Chicago having a potential weakness that Tomlin and the Tribe could exploit with well-located breaking balls.

Hendricks has had a slower average velocity than Tomlin in the playoffs, but it has made little difference in his performance. In three starts covering 16.1 innings, the right-hander has yielded just three runs on nine hits, with a WHIP of 0.80 and a batting average against of .164. The Cubs are 2-1 in those games, with the lone blemish being the 1-0 NLCS Game Two in which Hendricks was matched up with Clayton Kershaw.

Unlike Tomlin, Hendricks has not thrown many breaking pitches in October, opting instead to throw his four-seamer, sinker, and changeup more than 90 percent of the time. He induces a lot of groundballs with the sinker and weak contact with the change and will test the patience of Cleveland’s batters, who slashed .289/.349/.468 with an 110 OPS+ during the season against “finesse” pitchers.

Hendricks led the NL during the regular season in ERA, ERA+, adjusted pitching runs, and base-out runs saved and is among the frontrunners to win the Cy Young award. But his soft-tossing game plays into a strength for the Indians, which will be something to watch when he’s on the mound.

Advantage: Push