Cleveland Indians: Three Reasons the Tribe Will Beat Toronto

Pitcher Usage

I was very careful to title this “Pitcher Usage,” as I’m not talking exclusively about the bullpen. Cleveland manager Terry Francona has proven over and over that he is among the very best in the game at orchestrating his pitching staff, and the Boston series was a master class in the skill of putting the best arms in the biggest situations.

Of the 27 innings played between the Indians and Red Sox, the five best members of the staff – comprised of Corey Kluber, Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, and Dan Otero – threw 17.1 of them, or 64 percent. That’s utilizing the most high-impact arms in the most high-leverage situations, and a key factor in the Tribe getting the sweep.

That sort of usage will not be possible in the ALCS, though, with more games being played and fewer opportunities to rest. Francona will once again have to prove his mettle in going deeper into the bullpen against Toronto, and starters Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, along with Mike Clevinger, may be called upon to go deeper into games.

“We’ve got our hands full,” Callaway said. “We used four relievers the whole [Division Series], our top guys. That’s not going to happen in a seven-game series. We’ve going to have to have some guys step up and step up in a big way.”

A closer look at bullpen usage shows that Shaw and Otero only combined for 3.1 innings of work in the ALDS, a mark that can be increased. Allen and Miller also experienced some uncharacteristic command issues, and with better economy can likely eat up more innings.

But the remaining relief corps will also be required to play a role if the Tribe is to advance to its first World Series since 1997. Among them, the key may well be rookie Mike Clevinger, who has thrived since being recalled from the minor leagues in early August. Clevinger is the probable Game Four starter, but will be available in the bullpen through the first two games, and saw improvements in his strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, WHIP, and opposition slash line over the final two months of the season.

Cody Anderson and Ryan Merritt provide Francona with two arms that can give some length if needed, and Zach McAllister was lights out after the all-star break, giving Francona another hard-throwing option for higher leverage situations.

Still, it would be unwise to abandon what has gotten Cleveland this far, and for the most part that is Kluber and the big four in the bullpen. Situations will dictate how usage plays out, but it wouldn’t be surprising – it might even be preferable – to see Kluber inserted on short rest or Allen and Miller in multiple games in a row.