Cleveland Indians Host Chicago in Final Home Series of 2016

Numbers to Know

-40

While run differential is not perfectly predictive of a team’s success or failure (see: the 2016 Texas Rangers), it does have some value in understanding how a club has gotten to where it is in the standings, and for Chicago, it’s not pretty.

The White Sox have a run differential of -40 (meaning they’ve been outscored by 40 runs over the course of the season), which is the third-worst mark in the AL. Robin Ventura’s squad is third from last in the league in runs scored, despite being middle-of-the-pack in most offensive categories. The Sox have simply struggled to score runs when the opportunities have presented themselves.

Cleveland, on the other hand, has a run differential of +108, second only to the Boston Red Sox in the AL, and is near the top of the league in most statistical categories, including runs scored and OPS.

The Indians are +12 in 16 games against Chicago this season, which shows that most games between the two sides have been closely contested. Much the same should be expected this weekend, as all logic generally gets thrown out the window when rivals meet up with something on the line.

88

While 2016 has been a disappointment for the White Sox, and there is plenty of blame to be assigned, it’s difficult to place too much on the team’s pitching. Chicago is sixth in the AL in team earned run average and second in the number of quality starts it has received.

The starting rotation boasts two players – Chris Sale and Jose Quintana – that are among the top seven in the league in quality starts, and a third in Carlos Rodon who is in the top 30. The Sox, though, are 14th out of 15 American League teams in run support average, so a number of those outings have gone to waste, losing 29 of 51 one-run games.

74

Chicago and Cleveland have played six games at Progressive Field this season entering play on Friday night, and those matchups have not been kind to the White Sox offensively. Sox hitters have combined to compile a .228/.288/.391 against the Indians on the road, good for just a .679 OPS and an OPS+ of 74.

The Tribe has had one of the top pitching staffs in the AL this season, so it’s understandable that a team might struggle when facing them. But the entirety of the American League has been exactly average with a 100 OPS+ at Progressive Field this season, suggesting that perhaps Chicago’s difficulties at the plate there are more than just the product of the guy they’re facing on the mound.