Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers to Play Most Meaningful Series of the Season

Numbers to Know

3.77

Detroit is 32-25 in the second half of the season thus far after having limped into the all-star break at 46-43 and losers of three of four games. A big reason the Tigers have found more success since the break has been the improvement of its pitching staff, which has shaved almost a full run off its collective ERA.

In the first half of the season, the staff for manager Brad Ausmus posted a 4.57 earned run average, 4.60 amongst the starters and 4.53 for the bullpen. Since the all-star break, though, both units have performed better, and the staff as a whole has taken its ERA down to 3.77. In that span, the starters are posting a 3.98 mark, while the bullpen has vastly improved to 3.39.

The explanation for this improvement appears pretty simple, as starting pitchers Michael Fulmer and Justin Verlander have been tremendous in the second half, and the growth of relievers Alex Wilson and Kyle Ryan has helped to stabilize the relief corps.

6.55

Cleveland and Detroit haven’t met on the field since July 6th, so the Indians haven’t seen this improved pitching performance up close. What the Tribe knows is how its hitters knocked Tigers’ pitching around in the 12 games they faced it, roughing up Ausmus’ staff to the tune of a 6.55 earned run average.

As a team, Cleveland has slashed .304/.365/.529 against Detroit this season, with 25 doubles, eight triples, 17 home runs, 79 runs scored, and an OPS+ of 133. Other than a 12-2 loss the last game they played, the Indians have owned Tigers’ pitching in 2016.

All nine of Cleveland’s’ usual everyday players have an OPS+ greater than 100 against Detroit, led by Francisco Lindor’s whopping 179 mark and .364/.415/.636 slash line. The Indians’ offense as a whole has been better in the second half statistically than it was in the first, and if that trend continues, coupled with the club’s dominance of the Tigers so far this year, it could be an extremely high-scoring weekend.

31-32

One of the familiar narratives surrounding Detroit is that, if only the club had won a few more games against Cleveland early in the season, it would be running away with the AL Central for the fifth time in six years. But a closer look at the Tigers’ season suggests that’s not exactly the case.

Entering play this weekend, Detroit is just 31-32 against Central Division opponents. Yes, that includes a 1-11 record against the Indians, but the team is also just 6-10 against Kansas City. Going 7-21 against the two other top teams in your division is not exactly a recipe for walking away with a championship.

In total, the Tigers have scored 281 runs against the Central while yielding 310, good for a -29 run differential. They’ve lost four of their last ten games, and have gone just 6-7 in the month of September, failing to capitalize on opportunities presented when the Tribe has stumbled.

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