Cleveland Indians: Three Players Ready for a Big July

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These three members of the Cleveland Indians are likely to play well in June

When the month of June opened for the Cleveland Indians, things looked quite a bit different than they do now. Then, the Indians found themselves half a game behind the Kansas City Royals for first place in the American League Central. Over the month, the roles reversed, with the Tribe holding a six-game lead at the writing of this post.

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The biggest part of this change was an incredible 12-game winning streak, driven by a resurgence in starting pitching and offense. This said the team experienced a similar caliber of success over the entire month of June. FanGraphs assigned the team 10.4 wins above replacement during the month, by far the best among all Major League teams.

Now that we have established the high level of play seen during June, let’s briefly recap how my picks performed. Jason Kipnis had a solid month, slashing .269/.340/.484 with some good defensive marks. This falls in as better than his yearly average, so I would call this a successful selection.

Cody Allen was a bit of a risky pick given his shaking outings, but he had exhibited some underlying signs of improvement – and improve he did. Across just over nine innings of work, he saved nine games while striking out an impressive 13 batters. Equally impressive, he allowed just three earned runs on two walks and nine hits. During June, the closer looked a lot more like the star to whom we had grown accustomed to seeing.

Finally, Lonnie Chisenhall returned from injury to play very well. Batting .305 over 89 plate appearances, his offensive output was roughly 28 percent better than league-average. Although he hurt the team a bit with his glove, his presence in the outfield was much appreciated. Only Francisco Lindor had a better month at the plate.

Now, let’s turn our gaze on July and see who looks to help continue the playoff push.

Next: First on our countdown...

Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer entered the season in quite a tough situation. Removed from the starting rotation last season, he started the year in the bullpen. His work there was uninspiring, but some injuries and poor performance opened up a spot in the rotation for him. Since he rejoined the starting five on the 30^th of April, he has resembled the pitcher the Indians thought they were acquiring a few years ago.

Corey Kluber

A former Cy Young Award winner, fans are accustomed to Corey Kluber being one of the best pitchers in the big leagues. For the past three seasons, he has been an integral part of the starting rotation and the Cleveland Indians’ success. While last season was not quite as good as his magical 2013, fielder independent statistics suggest that bad luck cost him about half a run on his earned run average.

Unfortunately, the same seems to be true for this year as well. His 3.50 ERA is much higher than his 2.79 FIP (fielder independent pitching), which estimates a pitcher’s worth in a way that is more accurate in the long run. Given that he is likely to return to being an elite pitcher, it seems like a safe bet to suggest that he will be great in July.

Another major fact in support of this notion is his performance in June when he posted a 2.19 ERA and a 2.08 FIP. Much of this can be attributed to an increase in strikeouts and a reduction of base hits. The right-hander managed to hold opposing hitters to a minuscule batting average of .146, bringing his seasonal mark down to .207.

Not only is Kluber entering July after a streak of dominance, but he has been historically great in July. Over 126 innings of work, his career July earned run average comes in at a paltry 2.49, which advanced metrics find to be accurate of his value. Interestingly enough, his strikeout rates tend to dip a bit in this month, but so does his work rate. The driving factor for his July success seems to be his ability to limit baserunners, as suggested by his career July WHIP of 0.90.

Given that Kluber’s June success stemmed from elite contact management, it seems likely that Kluber can repeat this feat in July. As with Bauer, his success will be paramount to the team’s greater success as we enter the dog days of summer.

The final player on a countdown is a batter who has drawn some criticism for how he adds his value.

Next: Third on our countdown...

Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana has long been a major recipient of complaints from the fan base as a whole. His value stems from his high on-base percentage and slugging abilities, but he often fails the “eye test” and routinely posts extraordinarily low batting averages. To make matters worse, he is not extra speedy on the base paths, and his defense constantly falls under criticism.

This said he has been a major part of the Cleveland Indians since 2011. While old-school fans may not love his work, I wrote a defense of his talents last July, arguing against some of the biggest complaints in the comments section. He may not be an MVP candidate, but he has been consistently above average for the pix six years.

After experiencing a down year last season, he has rebounded in 2016. His batting average is up a tiny bit, but the real source of improvement has been the power department. He currently owns a career-best in isolated power, which subtracts batting average from slugging percentage, and he is on pace to top his career high in home runs. Unfortunately, the 30-year-old has seen his walk rate decline; but given that he is swinging at the fewest amount of balls in his career, I would expect this statistic to rebound.

One big reason to believe that he will have a big month of July is that he has traditionally been a beast in that month. His career July slash-line of .268/.385/.486 is sure to please both old-school and new-school fans. Most important, he has amassed 626 plate appearance in July, so we can make some reasonable conclusions about this sample.

His power tends to be up during this month, and July contains a disproportionately large amount of his extra base hits. Just two years ago, he slugged an impressive eight home runs in 26 July games. Combining these factors makes it highly likely that Carlos Santana will have a big month of July this year.

Next: Danny Salazar Has Evolved into the Staff Ace

Finally, I would like to give yet another honorable mention to Danny Salazar. Like last month, his underlying statistics give me pause before placing him on this list. While I may have been wrong about June, his 1.91 earned run average was much better than advanced metrics suggest. Most concerning is his walk rate, which continued to inflate into the old Trevor Bauer region. Odds are that Danny Salazar will continue to be good, but it is more likely that Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Santana will be better.

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