Cleveland Indians: Three Players Ready for a Big June

Andrew Schmid

May 25, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Cleveland Indians right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall (right) celebrates the Indians win with second baseman Jason Kipnis (center) and left fielder Jose Ramirez (11). The Cleveland Indians beat the Chicago White Sox 4-3 at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

These three members of the Cleveland Indians are likely to play well in June

As May comes to a close, the Cleveland Indians sit just a half game out of first place in the American League Central, and FanGraphs gives them a 72.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. Certainly, this is optimistic of the Tribe’s future, but it also reflects the big month of May that the team had. After posting a middling 10-12 record in March and April, the team surged to win 16 games against just ten losses in May.

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Much of this success can be chalked up to some incredible starting pitching. Danny Salazar continued his breakout season by striking out 46 batters in just 37 innings. Not only did he strike out more batters than the amount who reached base against him, but the right-hander also allowed a 2.41 earned run average and a 2.55 fielding independent pitching (FIP, an ERA estimator).

In fact, pretty much the entire starting rotation stepped up in May. Corey Kluber, who scuffled to start the season, pitched three quality starts and looked a little more like himself. Trevor Bauer returned to the starting rotation and prevented runs, although advanced metrics rated his work quite unfavorably. Similarly, Josh Tomlin posted great numbers on the surface, but the underlying statistics suggest that he benefited from some good luck.

Another reason for the big month of May was that the offense came alive to score some runs. The Indians had five starting players create runs at rates better than the average player, and the team slugged their way to the fifth-best weight on-base average in the American League. Slashing .304/.417/.468, Jose Ramirez played a big part in accomplishing this feat.

Now that the Cleveland Indians have put themselves in this great position, they need to keep up the pace to have another big month of June. On the following slides are three players who look ready to continue the playoff push. First on our countdown is a player who has been a big part of the Tribe for five years.

Next: The first player on our countdown is...

Jason Kipnis

The first player on our countdown is Jason Kipnis. The Cleveland Indians selected Kipnis in the second round of the 2009 draft, and he quickly excelled in the minor leagues. In 2010, his success across Rookie League, Single-A, and Double-A led to him being named the Indians’ Minor League Player of the year and a Baseball America Minor League All-Star. Baseball Prospectus listed the second baseman as the top prospect in the Indians’ system and the 28^th-best in baseball entering the 2011 season.

Cody Allen

When the Cleveland Indians drafted Cody Allen back in 2011, there were virtually no expectations for him. Drafted 698^th overall, Allen signed with the Tribe for $125,000. Despite the lowly beginnings, Allen took the minor leagues by storm, and he had reached the major leagues by mid-2012. In fact, he was just the second player from the 2011 draft to reach the big leagues, and the other was future teammate Trevor Bauer then with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Allen established himself as an effective major league reliever almost as soon as he started pitching for the Tribe. With a 3.72 earned run average in his first season, he dazzled the league with his velocity and strikeout prowess. After spending a season and one-half doing generic bullpen work, he took over as the team’s closer during 2014.

The right-hander has been one of the best relievers in baseball for the past few seasons, and last year was no different. Across just under 70 innings of work, he struck out 99 batters while allowing just 56 hits and 25 walks. Perhaps more impressive than the paltry .216 batting average that opponents managed against him, his 1.82 FIP ranked first among all qualified relievers.

Perhaps more impressive than the paltry .216 batting average that opponents managed against him, his 1.82 FIP ranked first among all qualified relievers.

Due to this high performance, the Indians had high expectations for their closer in 2016. This said Cody Allen scuffled to start the season, and he even showed a velocity drop. In the month of April, the closer allowed eight runs in just ten innings. Fortunately, he turned things around in May with a 0.73 earned run average and increased velocity, giving us reason to hope for a big June.

Furthermore, the 27-year-old has tended to pitch well in June. His career June earned run average comes in at a low 1.19, and he even managed to prevent opponents from scoring any runs last June. Allen has always struck out batters at an incredible rate, but somehow he has managed to increase that mark during the month of June. Combining this trend with his bounce-back May makes Allen look like he is ready to continue his stellar pitching next month.

The final player on our countdown is a player who has shown inconsistent flashes of greatness.

Next: The final player on our countdown is...

Lonnie Chisenhall

The final player on our countdown is Lonnie Chisenhall. A former third baseman, Chisenhall is now the Cleveland Indians’ primary right fielder after transitioning from the hot corner last season. There have always been high expectations for the left-handed batter, especially since he is a former first-round pick.

After the Indians selected him 29^th overall in 2008, Chisenhall wasted no time to show off his talent; and by the end of his second season, he had reached Double-A. It took just three years for the then third baseman to reach the major leagues, but it took much longer for him to become a contributor with the Cleveland Indians. He spent several years bouncing back and forth between Cleveland and Triple-A Columbus, but he managed to win the starting third base job out of Spring Training in 2014.

Although Chisenhall proved his worth as a batter in 2014, he failed to prove himself as a fielder. His defense became so bad that when his offense gave out in early 2015, the Indians converted him to an outfielder in the minor leagues. The move turned out to be a huge success, and Chisenhall returned to the big league stage to post a big second half last year. His talents also played out better in the outfield, with defensive metrics rating him as one of the best right fielders in the league.

This season has been a step back from last year, however. His .262 batting average pairs with declined power to make him a slightly below-average hitter. This said, my expected batting average formula feels that a .274 mark is fairer, and an improvement to that level would greatly improve his worth.

Another reason to believe in the right fielder is that, like the other picks in this post, he has traditionally played well in the month of June. In 234 career June plate appearances, he owns a .285 batting average and eight home runs. Of course, just two years ago he experienced a major power surge and smashed five long balls in 24 games. Combining this past success with a potential improvement in batted ball luck means that Lonnie Chisenhall is ready for a big month of June.

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Finally, some honorable mentions go to Danny Salazar and Corey Kluber. Salazar, as mentioned in the introduction, has been an absolute stud this season, and the Indians can certainly count on his continued greatness in June. This said, his home run rates do seem to be artificially low, and this combined with the spike in his walk rate could be a sign of regression.

Corey Kluber receives an honorable mention for almost the exact opposite reason. His fielding independent statistics and suggest that he deserves and earned run average in the low threes. The biggest knock on his likelihood of having a big June is that he has historically been mediocre in that month.

Andrew Schmid

Andrew is a student at Lafayette College. He grew up in the Philadelphia region and converted to an Indians fan at a young age.