Cleveland Indians: Finding ZiPS’ 14 Starts for Zach McAllister

Could Zach McAllister find 14 starts this season in Cleveland? Truth be told, we’re struggling to see that happening–but what do us humans know? This is a computers’ world now.

Fangraphs released their ZiPS Projections or the Cleveland Indians the other day, giving fans a chance to cackle and kvetch about this player and that one. They’re alternately bullish and sedate, contrasting Michael Brantley’s expected 612 plate appearances even though he’s going to be out until May, with Corey Kluber “only” being worth 4.3 WAR. Bullplop, I say.

But one thing that jumped out was Zach McAllister, who started one game last year and only throws one pitch, starting 14 games in 2016. This seems… off. It’s really because ZiPS takes several years of data to create an expected season for the player, and McAllister has averaged 13 starts a year the last three. Real, human logic knows this is probably dumb that he’d see nearly 10% of all possible starts since he’s plainly a reliever these days, but computers care not for our human emotions.

Let’s say these projections are accurate, and McAllister will get 14 starts. Where might it happen? What might have to occur for him to get this shot? Is it even feasible? First, a few assumptions. I’m going to figure the top four guys – Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer – will start 110 games between them.

That’s 30 each for Kluber and Carrasco and another 50 to split between the young guys. I’m factoring in the possibility of a dead arm or skipped days for rest particularly for Salazar since he added 90 innings to his workload between 2014 and ‘15 so there might be a delayed impact, or one of those four might tweak something in Spring Training and miss their first start or two.

There’s also other starters ahead of McAllister in the pecking order, namely Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson and maybe TJ House. Tomlin had 10 starts a year ago, Anderson started 15 and House a mere four. The current rotation is six men strong and doesn’t include House, but you’re going to need seven or eight starters to finish a season anyway. If they repeat what they did a year ago that still leaves 23 games. Let’s assume Anderson is still good and has figured out how to pitch in the majors and gets 22 starts, bringing the leftover to 16, then House gets a couple to bring it down to 14. So there’s your 14 starts. But when could we actually see McAllister take the hill?

If they repeat what they did a year ago that still leaves 23 games. Let’s assume Anderson is still good and has figured out how to pitch in the majors and gets 22 starts, bringing the leftover to 16, then House gets a couple to bring it down to 14. So there’s your 14 starts. But when could we actually see McAllister take the hill?

April – One Start

We’ll assume Anderson breaks camp as the fifth starter, Tomlin is in the ‘pen with his new contract and House is in Columbus. Really, Tomlin is likely to get the starts over McAllister in the event a spot is needed, but still, there’s space for it. Weather is garbage in April, particularly around the Great Lakes, so even if McAllister doesn’t get a start there should be a rain out on the 10th against the White Sox, planting the seed for later. Another rain out in late April against the Phillies means a doubleheader on Sunday since they don’t play the Phils again, and since Tomlin will have come from the bullpen a day or two prior or else will have already started for another of the top 5 guys, we’ll give McAllister his first start here.

May – One start

A mid-month, eight-game road trip that includes another stop in Chicago is an option here. They’ll be on the road and the bullpen could get worn out a bit in Boston, so they have McAllister start one of the games in Chicago. Other than that, there’s a lot of home series so if they needed a pitcher on short notice there’s House and also Mike Clevinger in Columbus for them to take advantage of. It’s so early anyway, even if someone did get dinged up in Arizona by now they’d return to fill their spot.

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June – Four starts

It gets interesting here. There’s a 10 game west coast road trip here, meaning tired bodies, possibly a pitcher sleeping wrong in Seattle and making his arm tighten up, and also right before this, there is a series against the Royals. They tire pitchers out. A bit of bad luck with a bed means a start out west for McAllister, and another long road trip to end the month could give a chance for another one, so for the sake of my argument, we’ll say he’ll start in either Detroit or Toronto to close out June. Adding to all that short term luck will be Bauer getting shut down for two weeks with elbow stiffness. We will all be terrified that his weird workouts have led to Tommy John surgery, but it turns out to be a minor muscle thing, not a tendon issue and he is able to rejoin the team. In the meantime, though, McAllister is able to add another pair of starts.

Six arts out of a suggested 14 midway through the season makes the projection seem unlikely, but that’s the thing about baseball – it’s a marathon. He’s going to have to go on a run sometime soon.

July – One start

It will not be here. The All-Star break means time off for pitchers so the Indians don’t have to ride the rotation too hard. There’s a Minnesota-KC-Baltimore trip in there, but there’s an off day between the Royal and Orioles so that might be out. They have another off day at the end of the month, too. The only real chance would be that the Indians starters do good work against the Tigers early in the month so he doesn’t have to throw, then a rain out of a game underway during the four-game set against the Yankees, necessitating another twinbill and another start for him.

August – Four Starts

That exhaustion I talked about earlier for Salazar will strike in the dog days. It’s hard to tell when, possibly during the four-game set against the Angels, having to start a part of a double-header after one of the games gets called after four innings and the starter is wasted, and another in Texas after Bauer Anderson comes down with the “flu”. He’ll grab two more starts because of Salazar’s resting in anticipation of the September stretch run, in which the Indians play almost entirely the AL Central in a schedule maker’s joke.

September – One start

If the Indians aren’t in it, there’s a likelihood of McAllister getting some starts at the end of the season, but that’s not what I want. I want yeoman’s efforts out there and gritty wins and October baseball. He needs three starts here to get to that 14, and I could see one happening against either Minnesota or Chicago, based on their place in the standings, during a run of 17 games with no break. If the Indians are in it though, that might be it, and they’d likely go with Tomlin over McAllister since he can throw more than a fastball anyway. So that gets us to 12. That’s all I’ve got.

Next: Indians extend Tomlin through 2017

He might get another one or two if they’re just playing out the string, but there is no other good reason save for a rash of unfortunate events that would get McAllister to that many starts. The funny thing is, if you add up all the games ZiPS expects viable Indians to start, you get 172. That is more than is allowed by the rules, so a more realistic four starts for McAllister is a possibility. It’s hard to find those 14 though, especially with all the strategically placed rest days. The fourteen starts isn’t really realistic, if anything this little project demonstrates the variance of the baseball season, and how lots of little things from rainouts to long road trips to a bad bed can give any odd number a shot. It also demonstrates the value of vertical depth. One thing is for sure, unless he’s discovered another viable pitch, seeing Zach McAllister start more than a dozen games for the Indians is bad news.