Cleveland Indians: Winter Musings on Lonnie Chisenhall

Unless something big happens in the next month or two, the Cleveland Indians are going to open 2016 with Lonnie Chisenhall as their starting right fielder. They aren’t likely to shell out on any big free agent still out there, and anyway, the only outfielders available are either too expensive, too old or they’d have to play out of position. Chisenhall comported himself well when he returned to the Tribe in the second half of the year, proving to be a stupendous defensive outfielder and apparently finding his bat in the back of the utility closet. There are so many questions still in the air with him, but even now, with his star having faded and this being probably his last shot, it’d be hard to give up on him.

The thing that makes quitting on Chisenhall so hard is the very thing which has failed him so horribly thus far in his career – his swing. Perhaps I’m a sucker, perhaps I get caught up too much in the aesthetics of the game at the expense of results because I want to be entertained, but when Lonnie Chisenhall swings the bat I fall in love again, every time.

Even if it’s just his flailing at a slider diving away from him for the third strike. Being left-handed myself, any nice, pretty lefty swing will be beloved. Chisenhall has a brilliant one, and every now and then it starts clicking. Like in 2015, when he had a 184 wRC+ in August or his insane start to 2014 with his 161 wRC+ in the first half that buoyed his final season numbers. He can’t take a walk to save his life, but at the very least he can swing the bat like a supermodel. One that models baseball swings.

The problem is, despite Chisenhall’s pretty swing he, according to Rick Manning during a broadcast, has trouble catching up to fastballs. Now what Manning said was not really true – according to Brooks Baseball Chisenhall is about league average at making contact on fastballs, but his intense aggression at the plate means he gets eaten alive by offspeed pitches. He’s a dead red hitter, as they say. This makes him get caught in the middle a lot because he knows he has such trouble with the offspeed, so he has to compensate for that and then gets stuck when a guy buzzes him with a 96 mph heater. It’s frustrating because he has the talent, he just seems to get so excited in the box and want to hit the ball so bad, but he makes it into a bad thing instead. Eagerness should be commended, but restraint has its place.

There’s that tickling hope though, that he’s in the process of pulling an Alex Gordon, going from failed third base uberprospect to star outfielder. Chisenhall has displayed a tremendous arm in right and great anticipation on fly balls. Perhaps the problem he had playing MLB level third, a lack of reaction, translates well when he’s given a few hundred extra feet. He’s always displayed athleticism, and he hit all the way through the minors. Gordon was varying levels of garbage up through his age 26 season, but then something clicked and he was suddenly was hitting over .300, getting MVP votes and worth 7.3 bWAR the next year.

Could this happen to Chisenhall? He’s the same age Gordon was when things turned around, he was already a 2 WAR player in 2015 driven mainly by his stunning outfield defense, and you can never discount his learning something in the last couple of years and growing as a player. A player’s prime comes at a period when they’re still physically at their best and also have the mind to know the game like a true pro. Chisenhall could have had that breakthrough after being sent down last year.

The endgame of all this is that 2016 is Chisenhall’s last shot to stick with the Tribe. Come 2017, Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier will be knocking on the door and Chisenhall will find himself the odd man out. In the world the Indians live in, young potential means more than a retread who’s doing merely alright. If the Indians find themselves in a situation where Chisenhall has in fact learned how to hit consistently at an above average level AND play Gold Glove defense, that’s one of those rare Good Problems teams find themselves in. Too much talent is what you want to have.

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Hope is what puts Chisenhall in the lineup time and again. Hope and patience. And price. Hope, patience and price. He’s still pretty cheap especially for what he did in the field last year. So we’ll see where it all goes in 2016, whether the bat will actually exist or he’ll just be terrible at the plate  but somehow still win games for the team in the field with routine jaw-droppery. He’s superstar caliber if he could just figure out how to not swing at pitches diving low and out of the zone. And of course, it always comes back to the fact he has the best baseball name in the entire organization. Maybe after Ryan Merritt, but that’s purely selfish. It’s make or break for Mr. Chisenhall, hopefully, he doesn’t break our hearts again while we learn of his future.