Cleveland Indians Offseason Search For Offense Volume 5: Carlos Gonzalez

Our series on the search for offense continues as we look at slugger Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies and what he could bring to the Cleveland Indians

We’re starting to get into some players people really would love to have for the Indians. Last time we talked putting some power on the hot corner, but now, especially with Michael Brantley out for an indeterminate amount of time for shoulder surgery and there being potential for improvement everywhere in the outfield, the permanent rebuild project in Denver could allow for a guy with big numbers to join the team.

Potential Power Producer #5: Carlos Gonzalez

Relevant Stats: 608 PAs, 40 HR, .540 SLG, .269 ISO

Positives: The man hits for power, and has since he really got consistent playing time.. CarGo has hit 30 or more home runs twice, 22 or more five times and when he’s able to consistently see the field he is a middle of the order force of run production. The elephant in the room though is his home park. Coors is hell for a GM trying to find a guy who can actually hit because of what it does to stats. That isn’t to say he’s all Coors, he did have a 114 wRC+ in 2015, a stat that is park-adjusted, so at the worst he is 14 percent better than average. That’s not exactly a huge boost to the team, but it’s significant enough to make a difference. . Even outside of Coors he has the ability to pop 25 to 30 home runs perhaps, which in the current offensive landscape of baseball isn’t too shabby at all. He’s also only two years removed from a 146 wRC+. If he could produce near that again he’d be one of the best players on the team. He’ll be in his age 31 season in 2016, on the downside of the bell curve of his prime but still very good. 

Negatives: It’s not just the home/away splits, Gonzalez has fallen off some from when he was an MVP candidate and won a batting title. In 2015 he was worth 2.4 WAR, one year after an injury-plagued -.5 season. Additionally he’s not been good defensively. While defensive WAR is a squirrelly beast, and he does have to play in an outfield the size of Central Park, he’s still hasn’t rated positively with the glove since 2011. The trend the Tribe has been moving towards the last year-plus has been highlighting athleticism and defensive ability to complement its already strong pitching, and while Gonzalez would bring some thump it’s a step away from something more tenable. He’s also below average at making contact. Now, contact isn’t the end-all, be all, and just because the Royals never struck out that doesn’t mean having a bunch of high contact guys leads to championships, but people have a problem with Carlos Santana. Namely, his ability to make contact on pitches (actually it’s more his intense desire to walk). If they don’t like that, they won’t like CarGo at all since he can’t even take a walk nearly as well and makes contact 10% less. He’s also left-handed. Not that that’s a huge deal, but there has to be a point where these lefties have to be ignored simply for their handedness. If it were Joey Votto that’s one thing, but Gonzalez is not that. The issue being, he is much worse against lefties, and I’m done with being eaten up by middling lefties. 

Cost: Likely some young pitching. The Rockies have had more than twenty years to figure out their team, and while they have had blips of success it’s the consistency that keeps avoiding them. But arms make the game, and likely they’d want a ground ball-heavy pitcher. Keeping the ball out of the air is key in Denver. That could mean Danny Salazar, who has shown growth in forcing ground balls the past year, though that also feels like an overpay for a player who was slightly above average in 2015, despite the 40 homers and also will only be in Cleveland for two years. Could he be had for perhaps Cody Anderson, a young guy with potential upside, or Trevor Bauer, a faded star prospect with home run issues? Perhaps the Rockies could be convinced that Bauer’s home run problems wouldn’t be an issue in Colorado since the fences are so far away. That would be a good hoodwink. They want pitching and you have to pay for power even when it’s juiced up by thin air.

Next: Search for Offense: Vol. 4?

Likelihood: On my scientific scale from “No, Not At All” to “Hell Yeah”, this rates a “Probably Not But Don’t Rule It Out”. While he doesn’t exactly fit a ton of needs for the Indians, he would be available and even with leaving the front range he definitely could pop 25-plus home runs. The issue becomes whether he would do other things, the line drive doubles and whatnot, as well. The Brantley thing makes it a bit of a need, but it just seems like the Tribe has the bullets to get someone with a bit more upside, will be around longer, and has the ability to get the ball further afield more often than a sea-level Carlos Gonzalez.