History in the Making: Reaching The Cleveland Indians All-Time Top 20

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Francisco Lindor – 4.6 career WAR

Despite playing only 99 games, Francisco Lindor was one of the most valuable players on the Indians. Since WAR is a counting stat, if you extrapolate that out to 160 games and give him a chance to come to earth a bit, that’s still 7 WAR. Fringe MVP type stuff. I’ve read and heard people say that he is likely to cool off offensively, but going by his Steamer projections that boast an .812 OPS (compared to .821 in 2015) and the fact that Steamer is known to be a little conservative in nature, we might have just scratched the surface. Of course it’s hard to project a 21-year old with less than 100 games of MLB experience, but for the sake of it, let’s say he’s as good next year defensively and slightly worse offensively, and comes in with 6.5 WAR, at age 22.

You have to assume, if it keeps up, he’ll see the same type of deal that a lot of guys have gotten and the Indians buy out a few free agent years after he’s cleared arbitration in 2022, and he’s an Indian into 2024, when he’d be 30. Heck, let’s say 2023 and he’s 29 because his agent is smart and sees $100 million in his client’s future. He’d have to not improve at all from this year, and if he averages 5 WAR a year that’s still 44.6 as an Indian, good for 11th on the all time list behind Joe Sewell and ahead of Addie Joss, Larry Doby and Sam McDowell. Considering Andrelton Simmons, the best glove at short in the game, has averaged 3.6 WAR a year and can’t hit his way out of a paper bag, I think a better hitting, slightly worse fielding Lindor could do 5 to 6 a season. And considering he’s still got to develop some grown man strength and truly learn the world of Major LEague Baseball, he could have an MVP bat to with the glove. We’ll see how WAR gets calculated defensively as StatCast gets more useful and conclusions can be drawn from that wealth of data, but for now, we know he can field like an All-Star. .

Next: Klubot

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Corey Kluber – 12.4 career WAR

For all his struggles in the increasingly pointless W/L column in 2015, Kluber was still excellent with 4.2 WAR. He’s got some ground to cover if he wants to get to that 35, but he could still do it. Right now he’s signed to the Tribe through 2021 including options, giving him six years to get that last 23 WAR. That breaks down to just under 4 WAR a year. Baseball Reference uses Runs Allowed per 9 to calculate their WAR, which is ERA but includes unearned runs.

Kluber was wounded by a terrible defense behind him for months and was still ace caliber. With the new look D behind him for a whole season, including hopefully the addition of perhaps Kevin Pillar or a similar “Go And Get It” type of center fielder, he should normalize back to that 5-6 range in 2016. As he gets older you can expect some fade, perhaps as much as .5 WAR on average per year. But say he gets 6 in 2016, his age 30 season. That’s feasible. That gets him to 18.4. He would have five more years to get less than 18 WAR. Even expecting .5 WAR regression a year that gets him 22.5 WAR, giving him some wiggle room to struggle and maybe a hamstring pull or some dead arm.

Pitchers are dangerous to put hope into but to this point Kluber has been a rock in the rotation for three seasons. All we have is past results. He probably won’t climb into the 45-50 range, at least not as an Indian, but he’s got an outside shot at the Top 20 Tribe all time.

Next: Carrasco Sauce

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Carlos Carrasco – 7.1 career WAR

The emerging ace was very good in 2015, but like Kluber was hurt by a 3.68 RA9. If he could creep back closer to the 2.69 RA9 he had in 2014 when he was worth 3.8 WAR in 134 innings, then go 200+ innings in 2016 like he did this year, he could easily be a 6-7 win pitcher. And to get to 35, he’d have to. Due to his spending parts of six years noodling around and yo-yoing between the minors and majors, bullpen and rotation, disabled list and active roster, he’s running behind on what he needs and is running out of contract time. Twenty-eight wins is going to be a lot of work, especially considering the Indians have him for five more years.

He’s been excellent, but he’ll have to be incredible the next two or three to even have a shot. I’m talking 7+ each season, get 18 to 21 at least before he starts hitting those team option years. So from his age 29 to 31 seasons he’d have to be one of the best in baseball and lucky to boot. Which he is very much expected to be – remember that stretch in early August where he logged a 1.36 ERA over 33 innings? Or shut out the World Champion Kansas City Royals, a team that never swung and missed, with 15 strikeouts in late September? He’s got everything, and if it all falls right he could at least oust Jackson and Bradley.

Next: Brantley

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Michael Brantley – 16.6 career WAR

This one might be a little tough, though not quite as much of a longshot as Cookie. Brantley logged 7.4 WAR when he broke out in 2014, then dropped back to 3.7 in 2015 as his power faded and his back hurt. His being stupendously average for several years prior means he’s only got 18.4 wins to go. He’s only signed for three more years including this upcoming one, and if he does what I hope he does, he may get priced out of Cleveland right quick. Basically, he has to get 6 or more wins a year the rest of his contract, and considering he’s already going to miss April 2016 and be working back from shoulder surgery, it makes one…nervous for his chances. If he fulfills my dream and becomes the reincarnation of Roberto Clemente, who was worth 22 wins from ages 29 to 31, he’s golden. Plus I fully expect a more 18 to 22ish home run range for him, maybe not next year but 2017 and ‘18 for sure. Unfortunately, he’s not Robbie in the field, so that bat has to do the work. It’s a longshot, but it gets easier if he decides he’s fallen in love with Cleveland and will forgo the likely $100 million the Yankees will show him. Given the time left on his contract it’ll be a close one.

Next: Kip

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Jason Kipnis – 16.1 WAR

Kipnis lost a lot of ground with that horrid 2014 but still finds himself only 18.9 short. Much like Brantley, he needs to be everything he was this year or his previous healthy one, 2013, to make it. Luckily for Kipnis, he has an extra year to play with. If we toss out 2014, which I’m all for since he was never 100%, and he ends up being something like what we saw in either ‘13 or ‘15 the rest of his contract, that’s four years of 5-ish win ball, and that’s right where he needs to be The question is whether his defense will hang around whether the bat will keep spraying, whether he’ll have another insane BABIP run for two or three months, and whether the power shows back up.

So it’s totally possible, is what I’m saying. Kipnis is stupendously hard to figure out since we’ve never seen the same thing, whether slugging second baseman or leadoff man extraordinaire, but the optimist in me says we’ll see that 5+ WAR guy the next few years. He’s just hitting his prime. It’s probably the second most likely guy on this list after Lindor simply because he has time and health on his side, unlike Brantley or Carrasco.

Next: In closing..

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These five are about it on the big league roster. Carlos Santana is decent but not good enough and just hasn’t produced enough to this point, and Yan Gomes, while wonderful, is likely to be a 4ish win player at his best. The farm system has young bats instilling a trickle in hope of prospect heads, but Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer need to actually play major league baseball before they deserve any consideration. And those young arms are just too unknown. Brady Aiken might blow up for all we know. And is Rob Kaminsky even real? Who will emerge as a surprise prospect next, ala Kluber or Danny Salazar?

Having two or three players that have a decent shot to get on the club top 20 all-time WAR list, and an outside shot at five, playing together at the same time is an amazing situation to find oneself in. That’s a recipe for a legendary run, it’s where the Royals find themselves right now with Gordon already there, Hosmer and Cain(Who actually got on the list this year, now at 19.6 and good for 20th) edging their way there and Salvador Perez only 5 WAR away from their list. Now it’s the Tribe’s turn. Sure it’s not the Yankees or Giants and their guys with 100+ WAR, but the Indians have a great history of some very good players. If not for that dark 30 or so years between Rocky Colavito and Jim Thome, perhaps there’d be more. But that can’t be helped. We could be watching local history in the making.