Cleveland Indians Offseason Search For Offense Volume Four: Todd Frazier

The Cleveland Indians will continue to look for an answer to their offensive ineptitude, and Todd Frazier could be an answer.

Part four of this quest for power keeps is in-state once again as we look to the Queen City as they dismantle their pseudo-contender. If you want to read part three, go here.

While Giovann Urshela was nice to have defensively at the hot corner in 2015 and hit better than the guy he replaced, any upgrade is nice. Especially when it’s an All-Star.

Potential Power Producer #4: Todd Frazier

Relevant Statistics: 678 PA, 35 Home Runs, .498 SLG, .242 ISO

Positives: He has been an All-Star for the last two years, and he earned each one. Frazier might not be the best third baseman in baseball, but he was at least eighth best in WAR in 2015 at 4.2. He’s really a very good to great player in his prime. He will be 30 in 2016 and is coming off back to back seasons of at least 29 homers and 660 PAs with a wRC+ no lower than 117. He’s powerful, durable and not too bad defensively, worth 2.3 defensive bWAR over his career. If he were playing next to Francisco Lindor he’d work out anyway, but this is just icing. Frazier is also cheap  fro what he brings – he’s under contract for $6 million next year then has one more arbitration year. This would give the Indians two years of him if they want him, maybe a third since they could buy out the final arb year with a bit of security without breaking the bank too much, and then they can offer him the qualifying offer and get a draft pick.

Or even just trade him after 2016 if they feel like it.  It really is a chance some suave front officery. Frazier is also a Big Name. Unlike some of the other players on this search, he’s never an all or nothing guy ala Bruce, a pariah with a few too many years on the calendar and on the contract like Braun, or an up and coming prospect with one breakout half like Bradley. People know him, know what he can do and would be excited about him. While that doesn’t help the team, it does energize the fans, and that’s a major reason to get a power hitter anyway.

Negatives: Frazier is streaky for one thing. While he hit 35 home runs in 2015, , 25 of those were from the first half. It meant his attendance and victory in the Home Run Derby in Cincinnati, and his name being everywhere come the Trade Deadline. Then everything went wrong. His power disappeared, as expertly detailed in this Fangraphs article, His wRC+ dropped from 146 to 75 out of the break, his ISO split was .301 to .170,  he hit only 10 more homers and he was just another piece of a broken Reds team slogging toward the end. What caused this? Injury? Simple regression? He had been very good the year prior, but in 2014 he had a 136 wRC+ in the first half compared to 96 in the second. Maybe he’s just a first half player.

He also would be going from a launching pad to a slightly pitcher friendly park. His home to away splits show he’s nearly 40% more effective offensively at home (139 wRC+ at home. 103 away). Not really something you want to hang your hat on. His value comes from homers, and he’d be going from the 7th best park for home runs to the 18th. He’d still likely get over 20, but dammit we want 30.

Cost: At the Trade Deadline, there was talk the Mets might trade for Frazier to bolster a hideous offense, but the cost would be something as high as Noah Syndergaard. Price is generally inflated at the Deadline since contending teams are willing to overpay for that extra little dose, plus Frazier had been an inferno for the previous four months. Ultimately it came to naught, but the Reds did say recently they want major league players in return for Frazier. There have been a few pieces I’ve read saying Trevor Bauer could be the name to get things started, though there would likely be a prospect or two headed that way as well. Probably not a Brad Zimmer or Clint Frazier, but perhaps Tyler Naquin or Rob Kaminsky. If the Mets weren’t willing to trade Syndergaard, the Indians shouldn’t move Salazar. He’s too good and will be along for longer than Frazier. You do have to pay for power though, so if that did happen, I’d be unhappy but understand.

Next: Indians Rule 5 roster decisions

Liklihood: Moderate to good. This one makes a lot of sense. The Indians have MLB pitching and a need at the position. I like the idea of Urshela being given a shot at third since he’s taken a bit to acclimate to each level before getting around to hitting, Frazier is good now and has a few years left at the top of his game, for cheap. The cost is something the Tribe could handle without being too damaging to the future. Anyway, they have most of the bullets now, why not load up that baseball gun all the way and start hunting…? . They still can pull it off and keep the near future bright.