Cleveland Indians Offseason Search for Offense: Volume One

There’s potential out there to bulk up this Tribe offense, so let’s go find it

This winter the Cleveland Indians are going to be on the search for a player with punch to lift them out of offensive mediocrity. In 2015, they ranked 10th in offensive WAR, 20th in slugging percentage, 12th in wOBA, 9th(!) in wRC+ and 19th in isolated slugging (ISO). Only four AL teams got on base at a better clip, so plainly the Tribe never had a problem getting guys on. The real issue was getting them over and in. They aren’t about to reproduce the offense the Kansas City Royals put together, where a man on to start the inning means a run scored, simply because they are too good to be bad enough to get all those draft picks and just don’t have the athleticism the Royals do.

So they need to hit the ball harder, more often. The slugging and ISO are the real touchstones here – the Indians need an offensive producer of some kind in the middle of the order to batter the ball around the park. That was the glaring issue when the season ended, and now with Michael Brantley shelved for the beginning of the season at the very least they are edging toward dire straits. Luckily, they have a glut of young pitching that other teams in any situation, from up and coming to mid-demolition, would drool over.

While a trade is more likely, there is a case or two where a free agency miracle could be the cure to the offensive lag. The goal is obviously to find a player that will be around at least while Kluber and perhaps Carrasco are peaking so they can push the team over the edge and win a title or two. There is a wave of bats coming through the farm system the next couple years led by Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, but there is a need now and an ability to get it now without hurting the pitching staff or future plans too much. Anyway, if we can’t count on the farm system to produce a 3rd or 4th starter now and then, what is the point of the entire exercise of having a minor league?

I decided to find players in the league that are remotely feasible to acquire (read: cost and age) that slug over .475, pop an ISO over .180, and/or hit more than 25 homers, and had at least 450 plate appearances. The last part is negotiable if it’s a solid young guy with a ton of talent. I chose these cutoffs (and really they’re just rough numbers since some of the players I hunted down don’t hit them all) because that would make the player a top power hitter on the team, producing multiple bases per at-bat enough to drive guys from first to third or home from second. The eye popping numbers of a Bryce Harper or Miguel Cabrera are typically not available, so the expectations need to be tempered a little bit. Even so, a player of these qualities means power, runs and wins. And that’s the goal.

Potential Power Producer #1 – Ryan Braun

Relevant Stats: 25 Home runs, .213 ISO, .498 SLG, 568 PA

Positives: Braun is just a great hitter. He won an MVP purely off his bat in 2011 with his 171 wRC+ and 33 homers along with helping the Brewers to the playoffs then did it again in 2012 with 41 dingers and a 159 wRC+. Prior to his 2013 suspension he produced legitimate thunder every season, one of the premier sluggers in the game. Even since he came back to full time service he’s been a comfortably above average player with a 113 wRC+ in 2014 and 129 in 2015. This is all, by the way, in a division with two of the best pitching staffs in baseball and a third that includes Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. That’s not to say he’d produce better in the AL Central.

He also got to go to Great American Ball Park a handful of times, play half his games at Miller Park and hit Wrigley at least a couple of days with the wind blowing out. But he did have the second highest K rate of his career outside his rookie campaign at 20.2%, so those arms had to have had some sway over him. That and age, of course. Coming to Cleveland would lengthen the lineup tremendously and he has the right-handed power that would calm those voices demanding a Cabrera clone, at least a bit. For a few years at least, he’d be a solid piece, akin to what Kendrys Morales did for the Royals this year.

Negatives: There are three big ones. First, the contract. Braun is signed through 2020 for $105 million. For a team with a sub-$100 million payroll and a bunch of young guys they’ll want to extend, $20 million a year for a guy who is 32 in 2016 is a bit much. We’ve seen the best of what Braun can be and it’s going to be a slow slide into mediocrity and then a world of old garbage.

The second problem is his position. The Indians have done a good job the last couple months shedding the glut of 1B/DH on the team, and now have the DH as a spot to give position players half a day off. There’s real, actual athleticism on the team now. If Braun were to come in, he’d play left until Brantley came back, then what? Right? Or are they going to see if Lonnie Chisenhall can complete his transition into the right field version of Alex Gordon? A defensive ace in right is worth a load more than in left. Likely Brantley wouldn’t see full playing time in left for another couple of weeks even after he came back, but eventually he’s going to resume his old role. He’s not great defensively, but surely he’s better than Braun. That means Braun is going to have to full-time DH and play first, and the Indians are back to the problem they had in the beginning of the year, except with five years of an aging former slugger to deal with.

The third problem is a bit more nebulous, and has to do with the fact Braun is considered to be a jerk. There were people saying he is a total narcissist and lots of anonymous reports from teammates about how he was rude at least and mean at best to those around him. And the way he systematically destroyed the career of a man just because his urine was mishandled. While it’s likely not all true, where there is smoke there is either fire or a horrible pollution problem, and the Tribe seems to have a pretty good clubhouse going for it right now. While that’s not the end all, be all and I’m sure if they were winning Braun would fit right in,

Cost: It would be prospects and a decent couple of them. Trading Braun is a signal by the Brewers to their fans that it’s all over and the demolition is in full swing. Of course, they lost 94 games last year, fired their manager, traded away their star center fielder and only three players last year were worth more than 2 WAR – Braun, Adam Lind and Gerardo Parra. They just aren’t good, and they’ll want prospects of all types. Luckily the Indians have that, but the massive contract makes Braun less valuable. The Brewers likely wouldn’t want any ML pitching the Tribe has unless it’s Trevor Bauer, who did a good job of lowering his own perceived value this season, and there’s little chance of Zimmer or Frazier or anyone like that moving. Perhaps a package build around Rob Kaminsky would work out, but there would have to be some money coming back. It’s just something hard to work out, simply because of all those zeroes attached to Braun.

Likelihood: Low. If I had the clipart, I’d give it 1.5 Wahoos. Cleveland being the market it is, along with the contract hanging around Braun’s neck, it’s simply unfeasible for them to consider tying that money up when they could just extend a bunch of younger players for the same price and not have to deal with the baggage or the lack of production from a 35-year-old DH. Versatility is the name of the game for the Indians, and bringing Braun into the fold makes that all the harder. They have the kind of pitching talent that could bring in young, up and coming offensive talent, so Braun would be a waste, unless the Brewers sent over $80 or $90 million along with it. Which just brings the worry of a heist anyway.