Cleveland Indians: It’s Time to Let Mike Aviles Go

Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Indians may say “Good Bye” to a long-time utility man

Entering this season, the Cleveland Indians held a team option on Mike Aviles. The option was only worth $3.5 million and had a $200k buyout, so the decision was essentially over $3.3 million. While this small monetary value may have made this decision seem insignificant, for a team with a small budget, three million dollars could go a long way.  The team ultimately decided to pick up the option, and the rest is history.

Now, Mike Aviles’ tenure with the Tribe is up in the air. He will be a free agent at the conclusion of the World Series – assuming that the Indians do not offer him a qualifying offer, which would be a shocking turn of events. To resign the veteran may seem like a minor decision, but once again, the few million dollars a deal might cost is a few million dollars not spent extending Cody Allen.

Further complicating the matter is Aviles’ connection with Terry Francona and the team. Francona managed Aviles for half of 2011, and they continued the bond on the Indians. Over Aviles’ three-year tenure with the Tribe, he has produced middling results but has been a big part of the team. Perhaps most the most complicating part of the decision is that Aviles’ daughter is being treated for leukemia at the Cleveland Clinic.

This said, his on-field performance should make the decision quite simple: the Cleveland Indians should not bring him back in 2016.

Next: How's His Performance?

Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

His Performance Has Steadily Declined

Aviles will turn 35 this March, and his age has clearly shown over the past few years. At his current level of production, he has been worse than replacement level for the past two seasons. Should he continue aging at this current pace, it would be hard to justify keeping him on the major league roster. Below is a table showing sore core statistics for the right-hander.

*Estimated results given current aging pattern

** fWAR per 400 plate appearances

The above projections may seem a little extreme, and they are simple linear regressions, but the point they make is clear. Mike Aviles is aging and becoming less and less valuable. For comparison, 33-year-old Nick Swisher posted a wRC+ of 73 in 2014, and he amassed -1.7 fWAR over 400 plate appearances. While that offensive level is better than Aviles’ 2014 output, the overall worth would be comparable.

If 2014 Nick Swisher enraged Indians fans, what kind of reaction would a Mike Aviles who makes one-fifth as much get?

Clearly, there is a big difference between paying $15 million a year and $3.5 million a year. I’m not trying to argue that resigning  Aviles for next year will result in a Nick-Swisher-sized problem. In fact, a likely horrid 2016 from Mike Aviles can be completely avoided, and there are others who could play utility man for the 2016 Cleveland Indians.

Who could fill his role for the Indians?

Next: Finding a Replacement

Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Sean Rodriguez

Sean Rodriguez is a free agent who could be had for a relatively small sum. Over the past three seasons, during which he was arbitration-eligible, he received roughly a $500k increase each season and made just $1.9 million last season. Since he played 139 games last year, he could find a two-year deal for $4.8 million with a team option for $3 million on the open market.

Such a deal would be cheaper than Aviles’ contract with the Cleveland Indians that he inked back in 2013, mostly due to the fact that Aviles was better than Rodriguez in the few years before the deal. This said, the 30-year-old brings power to the plate, although it somewhat tapered off last season. He still makes plenty of hard and medium contact, though, and his 12 homeruns in just 259 plate appearances during 2014 states the potential he has.

Rodriguez, however, also has several drawbacks. He has struck out more than 25% of the time in each of the past three seasons, and his total offensive output is league-average at best. Aside from two two-win seasons in 2010 and 2011, he has been roughly a replacement level player that can play nearly any position. This, of course, is what the Indians need from the next Mike Aviles, and Rodriguez is a much better defender than the outgoing Indian.

I am not convinced that signing Sean Rodriguez is a better option to letting Jose Ramirez become the utility man, but he is an option. It’s always good to have plenty of options for a particular position, and he would certainly serve a purpose. There’s a market for 30-year-old super-utility-men, but there’s also a valid argument for keeping a 23-year-old speedster who’s already on the roster.

Next: Conclusion

Summary

Neither player is a bad option, but the central idea of this entire piece is that it’s time to let Mike Aviles go. It may be difficult at first since he was such a big piece of the clubhouse that reached the post-season, and his daughter is in treatment at the Cleveland Clinic. But at the end of the day, the Cleveland Indians will be more likely to win with Jose Ramirez or Sean Rodriguez serving as the utility man instead of Mike Aviles.

Below are two tables that sum up the arguments put forth in the preceding paragraphs.

Jose Ramirez

Sean Rodriguez

Next: Cleveland Indians Should Sign Darren O'Day