Cleveland Indians’ Fifth Starter Job Is Open Heading Into 2016: Weekly Wroundtable

Katrina Hamrick

Jun 13, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Baseball sits on pitchers mound at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Indians have had plenty of candidates for the fifth starter job throughout the year. Cody Anderson, Josh Tomlin, T.J. House, and several others have made starts in 2015. Despite having four strong starters, the team’s rotation is far from set for 2016. Should the Tribe give it to one of the pitchers who have tried out for the role this season? Should they seek out a free agent? Is there someone in the minors who can help?

With that in mind, six of the Wahoo’s on First staffers answered this week’s Wroundtable question:

Who would you be most inclined to give the fifth spot in the Cleveland Indians’ rotation to in 2016?

Everyone has their own option, so who would you pick? Don’t forget to tell us in the poll at the end.

Nick Blazek: I’d go with Josh Tomlin. Last season he had some strong performances before getting hurt again this spring.The arm strength just wasn’t there yet. So far after returning from surgery, he’s pitched solid–but I feel like he likely wouldn’t have held up much longer than this last month and a half before it caught up with him. With a healthy off season to recover, I think he becomes the front-runner for the job, with Cody Anderson a close second.

Next: Can Tomlin Handle the Job?

Aug 20, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Josh Tomlin (43) pitches against the New York Yankees during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Does Josh Tomlin Deserve the Job?

Ryan Rosko: Josh Tomlin should be the favorite. However, the team may need to figure out not just fifth starter but their fourth starter too if they trade a starting pitcher for more offense this offseason. I do not like starting rotations of all a certain handed (all right/left handed), but then again the team needs to use their best pitchers regardless.

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Tomlin has a done a very good job since being a staple at the back end of the rotation. Could T.J. House improve next season after he heals from injury and be a legitimate contender? Maybe, but that’s unlikely.

As Nick mentioned, with an offseason to heal, Tomlin could do big things as the number five starter. In fact, as long as he stays healthy early in 2016 there should be no reason why he is removed from the rotation.

* * * * *

Jeff Mount: Tomlin has earned it. In 76 career starts he has made it through the fifth inning 67 times. At his best he will get you to the eighth with a chance to win. At his worst he will usually not burn up the bullpen. Not a lot of teams have fifth starters who can do that consistently.

My dark horse candidate is Gavin Floyd. I would not be surprised to see him in spring training on a minor league deal. They may decide his arm will hold up better pitching an inning at a time, but if he shows up and is throwing well, he may get a shot at the fifth spot.

Having Anderson and House ready at Columbus is ideal, so I would not mess that up by trading a starter. We have seen over the past couple of weeks how quickly the depth of a rotation can be decimated.

Next: Is Cody Anderson a Better Choice?

Sep 6, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Cody Anderson (56) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Is Cody Anderson a Better Candidate?

Matthew Bretz: I agree with others that with how Tomlin has pitched he’s earning himself a crack at the big league rotation in 2016. Had he not injured his shoulder at the end of spring training he likely is up in late April or early May helping the club instead of retreads like Shaun Marcum and Bruce Chen. Tomlin probably limits Cody Anderson’s exposure this year as well if healthy. That all said, I’d strongly considering going with Anderson over Tomlin if for no other reason than service time manipulation.

Another Vote For Tomlin

Katrina Putnam: In August, I wrote about Josh Tomlin’s sudden success after his return from the disabled list this season. For Tomlin, this is nothing new. He’s had several brief bursts of success, followed by injuries. It’s hard to get a read on his future ability, because his major league career has been very segmented.

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That said, Tomlin has made six starts this season and posted a 2.85 ERA. Four of those games have been quality starts, one was a completed game, and his record stands at 5-1. Everyone is so afraid of his propensity to give up home runs and hard-hit balls, but the fact is that Tomlin holds his own by throwing strikes and forcing hitters to beat him. Nearly 70 percent of his pitches are in the strike zone – far above average – which is why he’s walked just three of the 153 batters he’s faced. Three. Walks.

Yes, 10 home runs in 41 innings sounds terrible, but he’s only given up 13 runs total. Tomlin isn’t playing with fire and loading the bases, the way Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez did when they were at the top of the rotation. Sure, Tomlin’s a bit unconventional, but what he’s doing works. Stats like FIP are punishing to him because of the amount of long balls he gives up, but they don’t take into account how few base runners he allows overall.

There are concerns about Tomlin – namely his .167 BABIP, which is lower than average and signals that regression is due. He also has a 100% left-on-base rate that is certainly unsustainable. However, if he can regress even to the pitcher he was in any season except his injury-plagued 2012 campaign, Tomlin would be the best bet for the fifth starter.

Next: Why The Tribe Should Pick T.J. House Instead

Apr 25, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; (Editors note: Caption correction) Cleveland Indians starting pitcher T.J. House (58) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Tribe Should Choose T.J. House Instead

Andrew Schmid: While I would love to jump on the Josh Tomlin bandwagon, I find myself in the other situation and hope that the team looks for other options. While Tomlin’s recent success has been great, it is highly unsustainable. ERA estimators FIP and xFIP suggest that an ERA in the range of of 3.5-4.5 would be more reflective of his talent than his current 2.85 ERA. While this may not sound too bad, I believe that these numbers are overly optimistic. His 24.8% strikeout rate is doomed to plummet, as his 80.6% contact rate suggets a 19.3% strikeout rate. Certainly, the Tribe do not need a great pitcher in the fifth spot, and even a guy who can eat 200 innings while pitching to the tune of a 4.25 ERA has his value.

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A better alternative to Tomlin, in my opinion, would be T.J. House. I still believe in him, and I expect that he will return strong from his injury. The benefits of having a younger, left-handed pitcher are numerous, and House is more likely to remain with the Tribe beyond 2016. House’s 2014 strikeout rate was more or less stable, and his command should get better. Combining these two factors make him a so called “bounce back” candidate and my preferred option for the fifth starting spot.

A final candidate for the spot, whom I do not support as much as T.J. House, is Tim Lincecum. Lincecum, 31, could probably be signed to a minor league deal. His value excedes the potential of returning to something near his Cy Young Award winning form, as he is one of Trevor Bauer‘s role models. Not only could Mickey Callaway work with him to revitatilze his career in Scott Kazmir fasion, but Lincecum might help Bauer find something that he has so far missed. Certainly, this is a bit of a stretch, but it is a possibility none the less.

Next: Should the Tribe Exercise Ryan Raburn's 2016 Option?

Katrina Hamrick

Katrina is a communications major who loves baseball - especially the Cleveland Indians - more than just about anything. She would someday love to work in media relations for a professional team. In the meantime, she writes for Call to the Pen and works as a legal records coordinator in Indianapolis.