Cleveland Indians’ Corey Kluber: Three Pitchers He Needs to Beat To Win Cy Young Award
Aug 9, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber (28) delivers in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Will the Cleveland Indians’ Corey Kluber Win Another Cy Young?
On Wednesday, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote about the possibility of Corey Kluber taking home back-to-back Cy Young awards. While the idea seems far-fetched, there is some truth to it. Even after his poor outing at Fenway Park on Wednesday, Kluber could be a reasonable choice.
[Author’s Note: Because games were still in progress at the time of this post, statistics and rankings reflect the status prior to play on Wednesday.]
Kluber’s 3.34 ERA barely cracks the Top-30 list in baseball, but he jumps to 14th when the field is narrowed down to the American League. There are also plenty of categories he’s excelled in. He has 193 strikeouts, behind only Chris Sale and Chris Archer, and he’s got a fairly solid grasp on that spot. Carlos Carrasco and David Price are tied for fourth, but they only have 162 punch outs, so it will be a longshot for anyone to catch the top three.
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Kluber also has more innings pitched than anyone in Major League Baseball, topping Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw by nine full innings. His four complete games are a major-league best, tied with the ever-efficient Mark Buehrle. While WHIP isn’t considered a true measure of success, Kluber’s is the third-best in the AL, at just 1.04.
As mentioned in the MLB.com article, Kluber has the second-best FIP in the AL, at 2.58, a number that is at least partly due to a 27.1 percent strikeout rate and a 4.9 percent walk rate. His peripheral numbers say he’s almost certainly the best pitcher in the league, so what’s holding him back?
As of this moment, Kluber’s chances rest heavily on his teammates. Cy Young voters are not general comprised of voters who look favorably upon losing records. Kluber has 15 quality starts, but an 8-12 record. He would almost certainly have to pick up wins in most of his remaining outings in order to put himself in the conversation.
And right now, there are at least three other strong candidates:
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The Youngster: Sonny Gray
Oakland Athletics’ ace Sonny Gray is not someone to ignore. In fact, it would be more surprising if Gray did not win the Cy Young than if he did, although there’s still room for him to be snubbed if Kluber can pick up some wins. Gray has just a 21.6 strikeout rate, and while that is above average, he isn’t nearly as dominant as Kluber has been. Gray has also walked 6.4 percent of batters – again, better than league average, but not the numbers Kluber has posted.
What Gray has done is post a league-best 2.04 ERA, a league-best .98 WHIP, and a league-best 6.6 hits per nine innings. That’s a lot of bests, but will it be enough?
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The Oakland Athletics’ right-hander has only pitched 167.1 innings, and his 141 punch outs are hardly on-par with the other top starters. He’s made a solid case for himself, but what Kluber lacks in wins, Gray may lack in durability. He missed a week earlier in the season after picking up a case of salmonella poisoning, and last week in Toronto, Gray missed another start due to back spasms. While he’s thrown three complete games, he hasn’t had the kind of perfect attendance that Kluber has.
Last season, Felix Hernandez was the only pitcher besides Kluber whose name made it into legitimate Cy Young conversations by the end of the season. Hernandez’s 2014 season may be a good correlation for why Gray isn’t guaranteed a win.
In 2014, when Kluber took home his first Cy Young, his 2.44 ERA was far behind Hernandez’s 2.14 ERA. Hernandez also has the best WHIP, at .92. However, Kluber had 21 more strikeouts and three more wins, so he walked away with the hardware.
Gray has a 12-5 record, so he won’t lose out in the win category, but his lack of strikeouts may be a major problem. The fact that he trails Kluber in innings-pitched is another red flag for those who may way to see Gray as the winner.
Next: Kluber's Cy Young Competition: The Former Winner
Aug 14, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher David Price (14) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
The Former Winner: David Price
Another pitcher who is a major threat to Kluber is David Price. Toronto’s new ace has an 11-4 record in 168.1 innings. He trails Kluber in strikeouts, with 162 punch outs, but is too far behind to catch up and move out of fourth place, where he is currently tied with Carlos Carrasco.
Like Gray, Price has a much lower 2.41 ERA, which is ranked third in the American League. His WHIP puts him eighth among AL starters, behind both Kluber and Gray. Much like Kluber, Price would need to pick up several more victories before he could really be considered as a legitimate contender. However, outside of ERA and wins, Kluber has been the better pitcher.
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Price’s biggest shot at a second Cy Young – he took home the award in 2012 – is by showing voters that his performance carried the Blue Jays to the postseason. Even though the Indians are not going to make the playoffs, there were too many extenuating factors for their postseason absence to be blamed on Kluber. Much like last year, he will be viewed separately from the team, except where his win total is concerned. (This is not to say that voters SHOULD consider his win total – they absolutely should not. However, based on past selections, they absolutely will consider it anyway.)
Price, on the other hand, was a key piece at the trade deadline, and Toronto paid a hefty sum to collect him from the Tigers. His acquisition was seen as the moment at which the Blue Jays sacrificed their future to make a playoff push this season. For that reason, if the team does not make it to October, it may be viewed as a shortcoming on Price’s part, even if he pitches extremely well.
Next: Kluber's Cy Young Competition: The Unexpected Ace
Aug 19, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The Unexpected Ace: Dallas Keuchel
If there was a player who was more threatening to Kluber’s chances of repeating than Sonny Gray, it would be Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel’s career trajectory is very similar to that of Kluber’s. It wasn’t until last season that he began to show why the team needed him, after two very dismal years. This season, he’s turned in a stellar performance that is absolutely worthy of the Cy Young award.
Keuchel leads the AL in wins, with 14, and has only six losses. He’s pitched 171.2 innings, second only to Kluber himself. His 151 strikeouts rank higher than Gray, but beneath both Kluber and Price. Keuchel also possesses a 1.01 WHIP, which is better than everyone except Gray.
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Yes, there’s no doubt about the fact that Keuchel is having a great season. Fellow Astro and former Athletic/Indian Scott Kazmir is ranked fourth in the AL in ERA, at 2.43, so it’s certainly not as those Keuchel is the only good pitcher on his team. He is just having an exceptionally great season.
While he is slightly younger than Kluber, if Keuchel won, it would certainly change the way people view late-blooming pitchers. When analysts began to predict how Kluber would perform this season, they found that it was particularly challenging. Would he regress to the 5+ ERA pitcher he had been previously? Or were whatever changes he had made more permanent? Because there was no identifiable change – Kluber hadn’t added a pitch, changed his mechanics drastically, or recovered from some type of arm surgery – it was hard to tell what had caused his sudden surge.
Keuchel is in a similar situation. If he wins, it will be hard to predict whether he will continue to be an ace, or if he will fall up part. Regardless, he is perhaps the one unbeatable opponent on this list, and it will take both an amazing finish by Kluber and a rough September for Keuchel in order for Kluber to be victorious.