Cleveland Indians Wrountable: Predicting Francisco Lindor’s First Season
Jun 14, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians designated hitter Francisco Lindor (12) reacts to tripping over first base after he hits a single in the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Last Sunday, Cleveland Indians’ shortstop Francisco Lindor made his major league debut against the Chicago Cubs. He struck out in his first at-bat, but recorded a single in his second plate appearance. It might have even been a double, had he not gotten overly excited as he rounded first base, falling down and having to retreat back to the bag.
Lindor has long been heralded as the Tribe’s greatest prospect, and one of the top ranked shortstops in all of baseball. Everyone in Cleveland knew his name before he ever stepped onto the field as a major leaguer. With all that weight on his shoulders, how will the 21-year-old react? In 19 at-bats so far this season, he has six hits – all singles – and no walks, but he does have an RBI and a stolen base.
Lindor’s success or failure greatly affects Jose Ramirez, who lost his spot on the roster thanks to bad defense and even-worse offense. If Lindor takes off, Ramirez might not ever have a starting job with the Tribe again.
With that in mind, the Wahoo’s on First team answered this week’s Wroundtable question:
What are your projections for Lindor for the rest of the season, and do we see Ramirez again in 2015?
First up, those who don’t believe in his offense, but love his defense:
Next: His Defense Will Be Stellar, But Not His Bat
Jun 14, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians short stop Francisco Lindor (12) sits in dugout during the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Lindor’s Defense Will Be Stellar, But Not His Bat
Matt Bretz: I expect to see some “disappointing” offensive numbers from Lindor when all is said and done this season. By that I mean I expect his numbers to be a good bit below league average, think Jose Ramirez last year. Probably post an OBP around .300-.310 and a wRC+ around 85. I do expect him to steal around 15 bases and hit a few homers. Where he’ll really shine though is on defense. Can’t judge him by his first week, but he’s going to be very special there. People thought Ramirez looked good at short last year will be in awe of how good Lindor plays the position. Wouldn’t rule out a 2.5+ win season simply on his base-running and defense.
Speaking of Ramirez, I absolutely expect to see him back in the big leagues this year. However, I’m not completely convinced it’ll be with the Indians. It may be a bit of a long-shot but wouldn’t completely shock me if he was used as trade bait at the deadline this summer, especially if Lindor is playing well. That said, I do think if he’s not traded we will see him back in Cleveland, even if just in September. Very good on the bases and has versatility to play several positions; he can still be a valuable asset down the stretch for this Indians team.
* * *
Ryan Rosko: I would not expect much from Lindor. Average numbers in his first year should be the goal. He is going to steal a solid number of bases too. Most rookies struggle, that is a given. With his talent and skills, I just do not see the struggling aspect affecting his game as much as the next guy. I do however expect the season to be a feel it out type of process for him.
I expect Ramirez to get called back up when rosters expand later this summer. With how he played this season, especially prior to being called down, I doubt another team is going to want to make a deal for Ramirez. Once he does get called up though, as I expect will happen, it will be very interesting to see what role he will be given.
* * *
Nick Blazek: I see Lindor impressing this season. He’s not going to “wow” with big numbers, but I think he’ll bring a consistent approach to the plate, and in turn post respectable numbers. .265, 10ish HRs, 45 RBI. His defense will improve as he becomes more comfortable at the big league level. He’s not overwhelmed, but there are definitely some jitters there.
I feel like Ramirez will be back this season, especially with September call-ups. But..I think his time in Cleveland may be nearing an end. Players sometimes only get a certain window to make their mark, and I think Ramirez may have missed his.
* * *
Others were much more confident that Lindor will be able to get on base:
Next: Lindor Will Hit Better Than Expected
Jun 16, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) steals second base under Chicago Cubs second baseman Addison Russell (22) in the fifth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Lindor Will Hit Better Than Expected
Cody Norman: I expect to see Lindor put together an offensive season that ranks near the middle of the pack when compared to other shortstops across the league. Lindor is certainly more than capable of hitting .270 or .280 with 8-10 home runs and 30 RBIs. He is a significant threat on the base paths and should collect somewhere around 15-20 stolen bases before the season is up. Defensively, of course, Lindor should rank near the top of the list. We saw him make an outstanding play in shallow left field yesterday and his range is unlike anything this club has seen since the late 90s. Let’s be clear, though: Lindor is not a savior. Not this season. Not next season or any season after that. He’s simply a key piece to this young Indians’ roster. Keep that in mind when setting expectations for the 21-year-old shortstop.
As for Ramirez, I do expect to see him back in the big leagues sometime this season, though I’m not sure it will be with the Tribe. Cleveland needs some help, both offensively and on the mound. Despite his lack of production this season, Ramirez showed enough last season to make other teams around the league he can be a valuable contributor. While he won’t be the only name in any deal, Ramirez is certainly a valuable asset to include in any trade package.
Show original message
* * *
Joe Gerberry: I fully expect a decent-to-good season for Lindor at the plate for the rest of the year. .270/.340/.390 type season with 15 stolen bases is a decent season for a rookie at this point. By no means is he going to set the and world afire offensively, but he doesn’t seem too overmatched at this new level of competition. Defensively, he will be exactly what Cleveland needs and with the addition of Gio Urshela, will greatly help out the Indians rotation.
Jose Ramirez will see more time in Cleveland, but like Matt said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded either. He is taking at Triple A Columbus, and all signs point to him getting a call up sometime before September, whether it be for the Tribe or someone else.
* * *
Others predicted that the All-Star Break will be the turning point for Lindor – one way or the other:
Next: The All-Star Break Is the Turning Point For Lindor
Jun 14, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians short stop Francisco Lindor (12) walks back to the dugout after striking out in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
The All-Star Break Is the Turning Point For Lindor
Andrew Schmid: I’m not really sure what to expect from Francisco Lindor this season. Defensively, he should be a great short stop, but we saw nerves get the best of him a few times (tripping over first-base). I expect his defense to progressively get better and better throughout the rest of the season. Offensively, I project a lot of strikeouts. I wouldn’t be shocked if he strikes-out 25-30% of the time. Even though he didn’t strikeout too much in Triple-A, he’s not particularly well-known for his batting skills. I envision a scenario in which Lindor is league-average or worse at the plate, but league-average or better in the field.
As for Jose Ramirez, I think that we will see him again. He will certainly reappear in September, and it’s likely that one or more of Aviles, Kipnis, Lindor, or Walters will get hurt. For a player who had such high hopes entering the year, I have a hard time imagining that the Indians would give up on him this year.
* * *
Brian Brochetti: I expect Lindor to have initial success at the plate, but following the All Star break, I expect some struggles from him. As with almost all rookies, I expect the roller coaster first year to see another uptick just when the Tribe would be (hopefully) making a postseason push. If the club is in it, we’ve seen plenty of recent examples of other organizations’ youth making an impact, and Lindor has that potential.
I expect him to have some miscues in the field, but nothing that will be terribly detrimental to the club.
As an aside, I’m hoping for some success from Lindor to renew my confidence in the club’s ability to find talent in the draft. We’ve had some big picks over the last couple drafts, and if Lindor pans out this year, as I expect, it bodes well for the club moving forward.
* * *
So will Lindor be successful? Whether Lindor hits well or is primarily a defensive shortstop, one thing is certain – Tribe fans are far more excited about him than any other player in recent memory. With any luck, he’ll be the superstar that Cleveland expects. While Ramirez may find himself with another team in the not-so-distant future, it’s certainly not the end of the road for him, either.