Making the Grade: Ranking Center Fielders in the AL Central

The AL Central is home to some talented, yet inconsistent, speedsters who man the middle of the outfield

Full of speedy center fielders, the AL Central is home to some of the most inconsistent — an unhealthy — table-setters in all of baseball. Seemingly everyone in the division faces legitimate health concerns, as only one has made it through an entire season of baseball in the last five years.

Still, none of them recorded over 500 at-bats in 2014.

Once a prolific outfielder, Michael Bourn has seen a significant decrease in production since joining the Indians as a free agent in 2013. Chicago’s 27-year-old leadoff man Adam Eaton does more harm to himself in center field than anyone in the division and Twins’ starter Jordan Schafer has been largely unproductive in his six big league seasons. Tigers’ leadoff man Anthony Gose is getting his first real crack in a regular role with Detroit this season but, while he is off to a hot start, he has done little to turn heads in his previous three seasons with Toronto.

The only player of the bunch with any real star power is two-time Wilson Defensive Player of the Year winner and last year’s ALCS MVP Lorenzo Cain.

This piece highlights the center fielders who occupy the division and ranks them, from 1-5, in reverse order from least productive to most productive.

Next: No. 5

No. 5: Jordan Schafer, Minnesota Twins

Mar 9, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins left fielder Jordan Schafer (1) bunts the ball during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

There is a reason Jordan Schafer has not solidified himself as an everyday player in the league despite his more than five seasons of service time for three different teams.

In 446 career games played, Schafer is a .227/.308/.307 hitter whose speed and ability to steal bases is trumped by his inability to get on base at any consistent clip. Once the replacement piece in a trade that helped the Atlanta Braves acquire Michael Bourn, Schafer owns a career WAR of -1.9.

Through 10 games in 2015, Schafer has hit just .143/.172/.179 with one extra-base hit and 10 strike outs. He has been caught stealing in both attempts and, along with the rest of the Twins, he has been frustrating for first-year coach Paul Molitor to watch on the base paths.

Fortunately for Minnesota, help is likely on the way. According to Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune, the organization’s top prospect Byron Buxton deserves time with the big league club because, as Souhan wrote:

"Their leadoff hitter isn’t getting on base, their No. 3 hitter isn’t producing power, their ace has yet to win and they struck out 14 times in a lost Saturday that leaves them at 4-7."

The second pick in the 2012 draft, Buxton is getting his first extended look in Double-A. He dominated Single-A in 2013 before injuries ruined his 2014 campaign. Rushing Buxton to the majors is always a risk, but it might be a necessary evil if Schafer — and the rest of the Twins — continue to be bad.

Next: No. 4

No. 4: Anthony Gose, Detroit Tigers

Apr 8, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers center fielder Anthony Gose (12) hits a single in the 5th inning against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

While it’s still too early in the season to draw any conclusions, Anthony Gose has performed a well as most center fielders in the league to this point. He is hitting the ball with authority to all parts of the field and using his speed to man an impressive center field.

But, given his unimpressive (brief) history, how long can this go on?

According to Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs, the 24-year-old’s revamped mechanics might very well lead to a more productive season than Fangraphs projected at the beginning of the season:

"Through his first three opportunities in the bigs, Gose came to the plate more than 600 times, and he managed a .285 wOBA. That’s a bad wOBA — the sort of wOBA acceptable only from a pinch-runner or defensive specialist. For 2015, our own projections peg him for a .292 wOBA, which is technically better, but ranked with Shane Robinson and Aaron Hicks. It’s a perfectly sensible projection; it matches what Gose has done, allowing for a little improvement from the 24-year-old. But there’s something projections can’t account for as they analyze the history: what if a hitter changes his swing?"

Gose had the best spring training of his young career after spending the Grapefruit League revamping his swing with Tigers’ hitting coach Wally Joyner. Much like J.D. Martinez under the tutelage of Joyner a year ago, Gose has made noticeable changes to his approach and, to date, it has payed off.

After hitting .226 in 94 games with the Toronto Blue Jays last season, Gose is off to a .393/.393/.643 start in seven games with the Tigers. He is still more of a platoon play with Rajai Davis in centerfield, but Gose is becoming a legitimate option to lead off in a potent Detroit lineup. One would reasonably expect Gose to return to Earth and perform closer to his .241/.306/.347 career marks, but he could trump that expectation and put together the best season of his young career.

If he does, expect him to appear a little higher in these rankings come midseason.

Next: No. 3

No. 3: Michael Bourn, Cleveland Indians

Sep 2, 2013; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians center fielder Michael Bourn (24) strikes out during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

When the Cleveland Indians acquired Michael Bourn via free agency before the 2013 season, the Tribe thought they were getting one of the game’s premier leadoff men.

Bourn was coming off an All-Star season in Atlanta that saw him hit .274/.348/.391 and steal 42 bases. It was the fifth time in seven years that Bourn eclipsed the 40 steals mark and, at four years for $48 million, the Tribe thought they got their man at a bargain price.

But they didn’t.

Bourn has hit just .257/.312/.355 in his two-plus seasons with the Indians and missed significant time with nagging injuries. He has just 34 steals to his name in that span, including a less-than-impressive 10-steal performance in 2014. He is off to a another slow start in 2015, hitting below the Mendoza line and getting on base — or not getting on base — at a worrisome clip.

His placement in the middle of the pack doesn’t say much about his current production. Instead, it illustrates the lack of talent in center field in the AL Central. Bourn still has one year remaining on his deal, which is likely not tradeable, so he is likely in Cleveland to stay for the time being.

If he continues to be unproductive, it will be interesting to see how willing the cash-strapped Indians are to eat this bad contract and move on to one of the young, talented outfielders Cleveland has lurking in the minor leagues.

Next: No. 2

No. 2: Adam Eaton, Chicago White Sox

Mar 27, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox center fielder Adam Eaton (1) dives back to first base in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest detriments to Adam Eaton is his inability to stay on the field.

Limited to 123 games in 2014, Eaton hit .300/.362/.401 with 15 stolen bases. He was an outstanding table-setter for the Chicago White Sox, leading AL Central centerfielders in OBP (.362) and tying Bourn for the league lead in triples (10). Eaton posted the highest oWAR with Alexei Ramirez and AL Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu hitting behind him and, now with Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche added to the fray, Eaton has the potential to put up even better numbers this season.

Off to a slow start this season, Eaton has just six hits in 42 at-bats over 10 games. He has just one walk as part of an inefficient .163 OBP out of the leadoff spot.

Defensively, Eaton covers a lot of ground in centerfield. His gritty effort at the position, though, puts his slight frame at risk for injury. His nine assists at the position were good for third in baseball last season and his range-factor per game of 2.65 was fifth-best among qualified outfielders.

Eaton is probably the most secure in his position of this group, but his inability to stay on the field — along with his lack of any sort of pop — makes it difficult to rank him at the top of this list.

Next: No. 1

No. 1: Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals

April 10, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) is congratulated after scoring a run in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

First things first: Ned Yost was a little off base with his claim that Lorenzo Cain is “arguably the best centerfielder in the game.” That’s not a knock on Cain. But let’s not forget about the little-known center fielder in Los Angeles, Mike Trout. Anybody ever heard of him? 

Cain, though, is the best centerfielder in the AL Central.

He combines excellent speed with an ability to hit for a high average and gap-to-gap power. Cain hit .301/.339/.412 with the AL champion Royals last season. He hit 29 doubles, four triples and five home runs while stealing 28 bases in 133 games. He was a two-plus WAR player on both offense and defense, combining for a total 5.0 WAR last season.

The eventual ALCS MVP, Cain was scorching hot through last postseason. After going just 2-for-14 in the division series matchup with the Angels, Cain torched Baltimore to the tune of a .533/.588/.667 slash line and followed that up with a .308/.400/.385 effort in the World Series.

He has continued his hot-hitting through the early part of this season, hitting .419/.490/.651 in the Royals’ first 11 games. He has already clubbed two home runs and four doubles on the season, driving home 11 RBIs and stealing three bases.

At 29 years old, Cain is entering the prime of his career and projects to be one of the most productive outfielders in the division for the next several years. If he continues to produce the way he did last season, Cain will remain head and shoulders above the rest of this group.

Next: Ranking the Left Fielders