How great is the Corey Kluber deal for the Cleveland Indians?

Avoiding Arbitration Is Smart Move

One key thing with the arbitration process is that Kluber wouldn’t have to duplicate his 2014 season to be well paid. He’s already done enough that even if he fell flat on his face in 2015 or, God forbid, he got hurt, he’d still get paid handsomely. Consider that Chris Tillman of the Baltimore Orioles just got $4.315M in his first year of arbitration. Here are his numbers from the previous two years:

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I’m not saying Chris Tillman is a bad pitcher, but compare what he did the last two years to what Kluber has done, and then remember that Kluber’s new deal will pay him only $4.5M in his first year of arbitration, a mere $185K more than what Chris Tillman is going to make his first year of arbitration.  There’s very little Corey Kluber could have done in 2015 that would have resulted in him getting less than $4.5M in arbitration in 2016. Here’s a quick look at a few “comparable” starting pitchers and what the got over their three arbitration years:

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I use the term “comparable” lightly here as Corey Kluber has already far surpassed just about everyone on this list.  The only guys that are even close to comparable in terms of talent and resume are the top three and, as one can see, all got multiple millions more than what Kluber will get.  Even among David Price, Jered Weaver, Max Scherzer, and Doug Fister, none had a pre-arbitration season anywhere near the level that Kluber had in 2014, and only Scherzer ever had any such year (2013, before his final arbitration year).  In fact, there is only one pitcher that I found in recent memory that had a year as great as Kluber’s 2014 and was not arbitration eligible the following year. That pitcher is Tim Lincecum.

Next: The Tim Lincecum Comparison

Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Tim Lincecum Comparison

Tim Lincecum made 24 starts as a rookie in 2007 for the San Francisco Giants. He threw 146.1 innings and posted a 4.00 ERA and 3.63 WHIP. His second year, however, he won the National League Cy Young Award. He made only $405K that year. In 2009, he followed that up with yet another Cy Young Award. He made $650K that year, his last pre-arbitration year. How much did he get in 2010? He “settled” with the Giants for $8M in 2010 and $13M in 2011 after initially asking for $13M in 2010 alone. That’s $21M over his first two arbitration years. Two years later Lincecum again avoided arbitration. After initially asking for $21.5M (Giants countered with “only” $17M), he agreed to a two year deal for $40.5M, buying out his final arbitration year and first year of free agency. Lincecum over the same 5 year period that Kluber just signed for, made $64.15M. Let’s repeat that…$64.15M is what Tim Lincecum got from 2009-2013. From 2015-2019, Corey Kluber is set to make $38.5M.

One could argue that comparing Tim Lincecum to Corey Kluber is not fair. Tim Lincecum was a top prospect who won two Cy Youngs before he reached arbitration. Kluber meanwhile was a mostly unheralded prospect who struggled some when he first came up and has won “only” one Cy Young award (so far). However, a closer look at the start of their careers and things don’t look as different as one might think.

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Do numbers get much closer than that? Lincecum had more strikeouts but also a way higher walk-rate. Kluber a better ERA, FIP, K/BB rate, and even a better overall fWAR over the two-year time frames being compared. Lincecum of course followed up his great 2008 season with yet another 7-win season. We obviously still don’t know what Kluber will do in 2015; however, if Monday was any indication he sure seems to be off to a good start.

Next: What About the Post-Arbitration Years?

Adam Wainwright still going strong at the age of 33. Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

What About the Post-Arbitration Years?

There’s really no debating how great of a deal the Cleveland Indians got over the first four years of the Corey Kluber deal.  The only question about the deal that really could arise is whether or not the Cleveland Indians will still like this deal come 2019 and beyond, once Kluber has reached his free agent years.  There is definitely some risk to this part of the deal. Kluber is no spring chicken despite his lack of service time.  He will be 33 years old at the end of the 2019 season, the last guaranteed year of the deal.  That’s not exactly over-the-hill though it is getting to that age where one starts to worry about decline.  There’s also plenty of examples of pitchers that were still very effective at that age.  Adam Wainwright is one such pitcher that comes to mind.

Like Kluber, Wainwright had a bit of a slower start to his career. His start was stunted due to starting out in the bullpen but he eventually found his way to the rotation full-time and had his breakout season at the age of 27, same as Kluber.  Wainwright was forced to miss a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery but came back as strong as ever.  In fact, just last season Wainwright threw over 200 innings with a 2.38 ERA, 2.88 FIP and 4.8 fWAR.  Not too shabby for a guy that turned 33 last August.

Wainwright isn’t the only example but probably the one best suited for Kluber.  In addition to being a bit of a late bloomer, and a bonafide ace, Wainwright’s stuff is very similar to that of Kluber’s.  In 2014, Kluber’s curveball rated as the best curveball in the major leagues, and the second best curveball belonged to Wainwright (per fangraphs).  Kluber’s cutter rated as the 2nd best cutter in the major leagues last season, and Wainwright’s cutter rated as the best in baseball.  In fact, they were only six pitchers in all of baseball to have two pitchers rate as a 10 or better according to Fangraphs (Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Garrett Richards, and Jordan Zimmerman were the other four).  Needless to say, Kluber and Wainwright were in rare company.

Obviously just because Wainwright and Kluber have similarly great repertoires doesn’t mean that Kluber will be the same pitcher at 33 that he was at 28.  There’s undoubtedly some risk and concern over regression/loss of stuff.  However, given the amount the Indians are likely to save over his four pre-free agent years, does it really matter if he’s lost a bit by 2019?  Even if Kluber is a fraction of the pitcher that he’s shown capable, he’d still prove to be more than worth the deal he just signed.

Next: So Just How Great Is the Deal...

Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

So Just How Great Is the Deal…

In a word: Unbelievable.

Betsided

It’s truly unbelievable that the Cleveland Indians were able to get Corey Kluber to sign such a team friendly deal after the year he just had. Even though the Indians have made a habit of signing guys to deals like this over the pat 20+ years, it’s still remarkable that Kluber only got $38.5M guaranteed and only $24M the next four pre-free agent years. Perhaps it was some fatherly advice that Kluber received that helped him decide that Cleveland was where he wanted to be, or perhaps it’s the “Tito Francona Effect” that has players buying in.  No matter what it was, one can not commend the job Chris Antonetti did with this deal enough. He very likely may have saved the Indians as much as $17M over the the next four years and $25M over the next five.

Some may point to the deals signed by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale and think this Kluber deal is simply par for the course.  Yes, both of those players signed 5-year deals in the $30M range; however, neither had anything close to the season Kluber.  And yes, I know I’m beginning to sound like a broken record saying that, but it’s truly one of the chief things to take away from this deal.  Kluber won the Cy Young in 2014. He was still a year away from arbitration. He had untold millions set to come his way if he decided not to sign an extension…and yet, he did.  This is deal is colossal for the organization going forward, and I for one am most glad I was mistaken when I said the Indians would regret not signing Kluber last winter. A job well done on yet another great Tribe extension.

Next: Cleveland Indians extensions coming fast and furious