Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (74-62) vs. Cleveland Indians (70-64)

Pitching Match-Ups

David Price (12-10, 3.32 ERA, 2.67 SIERA) vs. Corey Kluber (13-8, 2.52 ERA, 2.74 SIERA)

I think we all know how this is going to shake out – neither starter will make it out of the fifth inning and the final score will be like 9-7. But if it all goes like the numbers suggest, this could be a good one. Despite a high for him ERA Price is having probably his best season, at worst second best. For a guy who just won a Cy Young award that’s pretty alright. He got bopped around last time out allowing nine straight hits to start the game, and before that went the distance against the Rays, allowed one hit and one unearned run, and took the loss for his troubles. We’re likely to see more of the latter this game. He throws hard, he throws five or six pitches depending on how you classify two-seamers and sinkers, and everything save his cutter gives positive value, according to Fangraphs. He doesn’t throw many cutters, but if he got a grip on that most dominant of pitches he’d be unstoppable. He last saw the Indians on April 7, 2013 where he lasted five innings, giving up eight runs. Don’t expect that.

Has Kluber spoiled me? Perhaps, when I’m disappointed in a 6.1 inning, three run, eight strikeout performance like he handed in against the White Sox last time out. Jose Abreu just beat the hell out of him. Still, he’s been strong all year and I guess I expect better from him. He’s been great in three starts against Detroit – 22.2 innings, 24 K’s and seven earned runs. The run amount has been trending down from three to two to two, so I expect one run. That’s how he’s going to have to pitch with Price starting opposite. It’s a great way to start the series and the homestand, I’m hoping for some nice ace work out there.

Kyle Lobstein (0-0, 3.09 ERA, 5.86 SIERA, 4.07 Minors ERA) vs. Carlos Carrasco (6-4, 3.01 ERA, 2.85 SIERA)

Doesn’t Lobstein have a terrible name for a pitcher? He certainly throws like it, everything in the high 80’s at best. We don’t have much to go off, but his two-seamer has been solid for him in the early goings. He can also throw harder than 89, getting into the 90’s and got a lot of strikeouts considering his less than blow away stuff. He’s just got to keep the free passes down. This is his second career start, lasting six innings of no strikeout one run ball on the 28th as he took Anibal Sanchez’s spot in the rotation. He’s like the anti-Anibal. He also threw 5.2 innings in relief after the incredibly named Buck Farmer couldn’t get out of the second inning against the Twins. Now, the thing about Lobstein, he’s a soft tossing lefty, so we know that could spell doom for the Indians.

Carrasco is the second best pitcher on the staff. Writing those words is strange and awesome. We all knew he could do it, he just needed his head to catch up with the stuff. It might all blow away and he’ll collapse, but right now he’s hot as can be. In 24.2 innings since AUgust 10, all as as tarter he’s got a .73 ERA and a 24/3 K/BB ratio. Since he got pulled from the starting rotation back in April he’s thrown 67.2 innings with a 1.73 ERA. Maybe he needed a reality check, maybe he had some stuff on his mind, maybe he was abducted and this is some sort of body snatcher disguised as Carrasco. Whatever it is, it’s working. He’s worked 6.1 innings against Detroit this year, no starts, giving up a run and three hits with nine strikeouts. I hope he’s actually good now.

Justin Verlander (12-11, 4.68 ERA, 4.28 SIERA) vs. Danny Salazar (5-6, 4.23 ERA, 3.58 SIERA)

Has Verlander figured it back out? He was strong like bull against the White Sox last week, his best outing of the year with seven innings of one run, eight K ball. His best of the year. Of course, prior to that he’d only K’d eight two times, and the last time he allowed less than two runs it was April, against the Indians. Five innings, no runs. He might have finally gotten locked in but that doesn’t happen this late usually. For the Indians’ sake, let’s hope the swoon continues. For all the claims he’s not what he was, he’s been very good against the Tribe this year. Facing teams he’s seen more than once, Verlander has his best numbers against Cleveland with a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings. Not what we expected out of him by any means after what he’s been doing, but still, he steps up when it comes to the Indians.

Danny was very good against KC. The rain ended his night perhaps before he was out of gas, but maybe it was for the best, let him leave on a high note. He’s been really good since coming back for consistent starts in July, a 2.84 ERA in seven starts attests to that. That includes a stinker in early August when he coughed up five runs in four to the Reds. I expect we’ll see a tour of the bullpen, he’s unlikely to last through more than six, but I can’t help but think back to that start he had last year against Detroit, he had 10 K’s and struck out Miggy three times, then on the fourth time Francona trusted the kid, and the big man hit a monstrous home run off him. It was a masterful outing, showing everything Salazar could be. Maybe he could be that again, minus the game tying home run. He saw the Tigers earlier this year, giving up five runs in 4.2 innings, only three strikeouts. But that was before his re-emergence. Right?

Max Scherzer (15-5, 3.26 ERA, 2.83 SIERA) vs. Trevor Bauer (5-7, 3.99 ERA, 3.94 SIERA)

I’ll be happy when Scherzer signs elsewhere this winter. I can talk all I want about how he’s not as great as people think, but the proof is in the pudding. Delicious strikeout pudding, of his own design. Even if it looks like his elbow is going to detonate every throw he’s getting the job done and with a 28.8 K% and only 6.8 BB%, he’s being what most hope for out of an ace. And that .970 WHIP last year was something real special, AND he threw that complete game so I can’t complain about that. He had the strikeout pitch working in Chicago, 11 in 6.2 innings, though he took the loss after giving up four runs in the fourth. The Wahoos have gotten good swings on him though, batting .308 on the year with an .893 OPS, compared to .443 last year when Detroit was eating Cleveland’s lunch. He was magical in 2013 and nearly as good this year, but at least some of that has worn off at Jacob’s Field.

Bauer did all he needed to on Saturday night, one of the most stressful games I’ve ever experienced as a Tribe fan. The low score and Josh Tomlin closing it out certainly had something to do with that. But Bauer? With five walks, but no earned runs and only three hits, throwing into the seventh inning? The kid looked great. Also the first time he’s had back to back no-run outings. The Tigers have not been kind to Trevor – in three games they pack a .922 OPS against him including five homers. I know his pitching philosophy Effective Velocity is supposed to negate hard-hit balls, he’s just got to stop getting into sticky situations. I don’t expect shutouts, I just hope Bauer is as good as he can be. He’s shown flashes, in time he’ll put it together. Every game, every pitch is a chance for growth.