Series Preview: Cleveland Indians (66-63) vs Chicago White Sox (59-71)

TJ House (2-3, 3.80 ERA, 3.42 SIERA) vs. Jose Quintana (6-10, 3.25 ERA, 3.63 SIERA)

House is what he is – a middling lefty with mediocre stuff that will have a five or six career because of which hand he throws with. But right now? He’s awesome. He scattered four hits and a trio of walks over five and a third innings facing the Twins. Not exactly a great offensive force but he did do a good job against Joe Mauer. Say what you will about Mauer this season but the guy can still hit, it’s not like he’s dead. House’s average stuff does just enough if the offense wakes up, and he gets by on moxie what he doesn’t have in actual ability. Now that he’s a grizzled veteran with a mighty beard he probably doesn’t remember, but he faced the Sox on May 28th in his third major league start. In 6.1 innings he allowed a run on five hits with eight strikeouts. I don’t realistically think this could happen again, especially since Abreu wasn’t in the lineup that day. He’s looked good of late though and confidence is such a powerful weapon even when it’s woefully misplaced. Let it happen.

Quintana is like Cleveland kryptonite – 42.1 innings, 2.66 ERA in his career against the Tribe. They always struggle against decent lefties, and he’s the most decent lefty out there. But really, he’s become a solid pitcher even without doing anything overly special. He pairs well with Sale, a pair of strong southpaws on the South Side that can silence lineups before the bullpen blows it. Or the defense, depending on who’s on rotation that day. What’s amazing about Quintana is despite the cratering of the Chicago defense he’s maintained numbers from last year – ERA+ is 122 compared to 120 a year ago – but his FIP is crazy – 2.85 this season as opposed to 3.82 a year ago. The cause? How about 23 dingers given up last season, and only seven this year. He’s not letting batters barrel him up as much. Everything else has held firm, but the homers – wow. Could just be an aberration judging from his skills interactive ERA, we’ll see. But Don Cooper is a wizard, maybe he figured something out.

Corey Kluber (13-7, 2.46 ERA, 2.74 SIERA) vs. Hector Noesi (7-9, 4.86 ERA, 4.36 SIERA)

Kluber blew it, huh? At least, that’s what you can call it when you’re used to seven-plus innings with a run or two allowed and nine K’s. But hey, it happens, a guy can lay an egg now and then. It’s a little odd that he, Sale, Kershaw and Felix all did it within like six days of eachother. Somebody should commission a study on the phases of the moon and great pitching. I fully expect Kluber to dominate this time out because it’s what I’ve come to expect out of him anyway. He’ll probably get a bag full of strikeouts with Dunn, Viciedo, Abreu and whatever they’re rolling out there at second these days. What did Clubber Lang predict when he fought Rocky? Oh, that’s right, pain.

I’d hoped, as an objective baseball fan who hopes for the best in most players provided that it doesn’t impact my own fandom too much, that Noesi would turn it around when the Sox signed him. Turns out I had confused him with someone else, maybe that Vargas on the Royals. He’s not though, he’s kind of garbage truth be told. I hope the Indians can eat him up, give Kluber some surplus runs to work with. Noesi gave up three dingers against the O’s last time out, though he said he’d only missed location on two pitches. Which is curious. He did strike out eight with no walks though. That might be one of those outliers Gladwell was talking about. I didn’t read the book, so I don’t know.

Carlos Carrasco 5-4, 3.14 ERA, 2.89 SIERA) vs. John Danks (9-8, 4.96 ERA, 4.73 SIERA)

It’s a neat matchup here, one guy who may be realizing his talent finally and another that is trying to get back to where he once was. Carrasco has been filthy though, a .5 ERA since rejoining the rotation and only two walks in his last three starts. We all knew the stuff could translate if the head got right. I would note his numbers of late against the Sox but I just don’t think they’re relevant anymore. He’s on a roll right now and all that needs to happen is for him to not lay one in there to Abreu. He’s exciting to watch – so much power, such silly stuff.

Danks was pretty good once, earning himself $14 million a year or thereabouts before his shoulder gave out. Now he’s mediocre at best, though somehow he has a winning record. His hits are way up, homers given up too, and he walks too many for how few he strikes out. A 1.7 K/BB ratio isn’t going to cut it, but the Sox need innings to get to the end, and that’s what he’s become at this point, pretty much their version of Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez circa 2011-12. Just eat the innings baby. The Tribe has hit him well this year, 12 earned runs in 18 innings and seven walks along with three homers. Really, right with his season averages. If Carrasco does what he’s been doing, this could seal the deal.