Series Preview: Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees

Pitching Match-ups

Trevor Bauer (4-6, 4.20 ERA, 3.98 SIERA) vs Esmil Rogers (1-0, 5.84 ERA, 4.11 SIERA)

Since July 1st Trevor has a 3.98 ERA, averaging just over six innings a start. You throw out that 4.1 inning, five run egg he laid against the Mariners and suddenly he’s twirling quality-plus starts every time out. I don’t like the quality start – six innings with three runs isn’t quality, it’s mediocre. But getting into the seventh, keeping the team in the game without tiring the ‘pen out? That’s cool. He faced the Yankees last month, going seven innings and allowing two earned runs on four hits, effectively out-dueling Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees lineup isn’t stupendous and when Bauer is doing his thing he kind of is, so I think he’ll do what he’s been doing the last month or so – 6.2, three earned runs and six or seven K’s. You can’t ask for much more.

Esmil Rogers has given so much to the Cleveland Indians. First as a reliever he was pretty decent for 53 innings and gave a bit of a break for a tired bullpen, then he got traded for a solid utility man in Mike Aviles and a new franchise cornerstone at catcher in Yan Gomes. It was a crafty robbery by Antonetti, taking advantage of the Blue Jays while they were wrapped up in J.P. Arencibia. Rogers is starting because the Bombers’ cupboard is bare. He’s only thrown 24.2 innings this year and given up many a hit, it will ive the Indians a chacne to get to the bullpen before Betances and Robertson makes their presence known. As John Sterling notes ad nauseum you can’t predict baseball, but this one should go the Indians’ way.

Corey Kluber (12-6, 2.55 ERA, 2.77 SIERA) vs. Brandon McCarthy (7-10, 4.37 ERA, 3.01 SIERA)

I said something to a coworker the other day that sounds silly on its face, but you could agree with it after a moment. I told him Kluber is the best pitcher in the division this year. I was only thinking about the Tigers in the wake of David Price coming to town and forgetting Chris Sale, but really, it’s not far off. Price leads him in strikeouts in part because of a lead in IP, but Kluber’s allowed less homers, has a lower BA against and a comparable WHIP. If pressed I’d probably swing back to Price, but Kluber has been filthy lately. I expect that to carry over to this start since the Yanks have offensive issues at times and he’s a dirty machine. Plus his ground ball rate is up so the homer might not hurt him as much in the Yankee Stadium bandbox and with Asdrubal Cabrera gone the defense could (MAYBE) be better. He hasn’t seen the Yankees yet this year.

When McCarthy was a free agent after the 2012 season I was super on the bandwagon to get him to Cleveland. He’s a smart pitcher with good stuff and a hot wife, so you know he’s confident. His understanding of Sabermetrics has made him a hero of sorts to the stathead, and now that he’s escaped the pitcher’s hell of Arizona he has performed very well. I’m actually amazed he hasn’t developed a cutter yet considering how that’s swept the league like wildfire because of its effectiveness. Maybe he’ll look into Effective Velocity next. The guy loves to tinker, and he’s unlike most baseball players. Expect lots of sinkers though, that’s his bread and butter. This will be his first exposure to the Tribe in quite a while

TBA vs. Hiroki Kuroda (7-7, 3.97 ERA, 3.85 SIERA)

Who will it be? McAllister? Probably. Carrasco? That would be cool. Tomlin? No, let’s hope not, not in that stadium. I’ll assume it’s going to be Carrasco, he’s been electric since being moved to the bullpen. We’re talking a 2.30 ERA, .561 OPS against, and a 39/9 K/BB ratio in 43 innings. He’s never gone more than four innings in the stretch of time from April 30th to now, his stretch in the pen, but that four innings was last time out. He struck out five and allowed three runs. Perhaps a bit of a stretch out? He’s got filthy stuff, always has, he’s just the biggest tease on the whole team. Let’s see what happens when he can’t go full bore for a short time.

Amid all the drama of the Frank McCourt saga in LA then later as the bright lights blazed and Mo and Jeter took their final lap through the league, Hiroki Kuroda has been quietly plying his trade and getting the job done. He’s probably never been the best pitcher on a team while in the States but easily second and always great. This year isn’t so pretty but he did a brilliant job against the Tigers last time out, three runs in seven innings, a strong feat in its own right. He’s a pitcher – nothing super overpowering but he locates and mixes the pitches, using innate EV principles as he outthinks and fools hitters. I like watching him pitch, it’s cerebral. He last saw the Tribe in the beginning of 2013 going 5.1 innings with three earned runs. Something like that is likely again.