Series Preview: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Pitching Match-Ups

Rick Porcello (8-4, 4.03 ERA, 4.13 SIERA) vs. Corey Kluber (6-4, 3.35 ERA, 2.94 SIERA)

Last year was supposed to be Porcello’s breakout year, but everything has regressed back to what he was before he started racking up K’s, down to 5.7/9 compared to 7.4 last year. The hits have stayed at the career low rate though, so that’s good at least. He’s lost a tick on his fastball, the two seamer down to 90 from 91 a year ago, but as summer stretches on and heats up that could rise a bit. Maybe last year was an outlier, a lot like Masterson. He’s still a strong back of the order pitcher. The Tribe hasn’t seen him this year, though last season he owned them with a 1.84 ERA in 24.2 innings. Those extra K’s and MPH might prove the difference.

June has not proven to be as friendly to Mr. Kluber as May was. He’s allowed 12, nine earned,  runs in 16.2 innings and his K/BB ratio is 1.62 compared to 7.5 last month. It could be any number of things – bad luck, bad defense putting him in bad positions, or he’s lost the hot hand. He’s surely better than he’s been this month, though worse than he was last month. Nobody is that good AND human. He’s got to be more efficient, though that can spell doom against the Tigers if you pound the zone too much. He got served a no decision despite a solid start in May against Detroit, seven innings with three runs and eight strikeouts, and a homer served up to V-Mart. Even if he’s not as good this month it’s a great way to start a series.

Jun 16, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer (47) delivers in the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Verlander (6-7, 4.98 ERA, 4.69 SIERA) vs. Trevor Bauer (2-3, 4.20 ERA, 3.67 SIERA)

Justin Verlander is just not good this year. Not to say he’s not still a fine pitcher, but by his standards, those of MVP and Cy Young and Kate Upton, he’s been garbage. His velocity is down, guys are hitting .293 on his fastball and .309 on his change compared to .261 and .239 for his career, that’s just a glimpse. His K% is 15.8 compared to 23.5 last year and his walk rate is up a percentage point. He’s just more hittable. Tons of digital ink has been dumped on this, and more before the year is over if this continues. Pitchers are volatile, even the best ones. The Indians will look to duplicate May 20th against him, 11 hits and five runs in six frames. As a baseball fan I hope he bounces back, but hopefully he’ll wait a start. But you know the A’s aren’t crying over this.

After reading that recent SBNation piece on effective velocity, my regard for Trevor Bauer only grows. He’s an incredible talent and if he can harness the mental skills he’s working on he’ll be just unhittable for a long, long time. As it is he’s awesome, that fastball of his is electric and now that I know what he’s working for I’ll worry a bit less about how high it is in the zone so often. That slurve thingy he throws is wicked, reminds me of a Lincecum pitch at his height. The results will come, he’s just figuring out the majors. He earned his first win of the season against the Tigers last month, six innings with two earned runs. If he cuts out the three walks he handed out, the Kitties will be stymied. I can’t help thinking how cool it is to have a bunch of young, intriguing talent again.

Max Scherzer (8-3, 3.84 ERA, 3.13 SIERA) vs. Josh Tomlin (4-4, 3.86 ERA, 3.53 SIERA)

You have to wonder how much Scherzer is kicking himself for turning down that offer the Tigers gave him in the offseason. I’m all for a guy betting on himself, because when it works it’s awesome. Look at Joe Flacco, he got paid after winning a Super Bowl. And Scherzer is going to get paid, but that was a lot of money he turned down. He’s still been very good this year and finally pitched a complete game, so I have a bit less derision for him. I feel like a guy SHOULD be able to go nine innings, even if he never does. He’s striking out 27.1% of batters which is right around last years’ and his BABIP is slightly elevated. He’s certainly the Tigers’ best pitcher even if he’s allowed 39 runs his last six starts. He pitched in that 11-10 slugfest where McAllister got hurt last month, giving up seven runs but going seven innings. It seems like he’s gone six or so a few times while giving up a lot of runs lately. Ausmus is an odd dude.

When Tomlin pitches it’s imperative the defense play well, or runs show up quick. He’s been getting more K’s this year but not enough for him to be able to lean on that arm of his hardcore. Bad D has bit him in the butt the last couple starts – an error of a flubbed fielding or a walk (not defense, I know) then his usual dinger happens right then. His last four starts spanning 24.2 innings and never getting out of the sixth he’s got a 4.74 ERA and an  .809 OPS against. This is his first start against the Tigers, though he got the win in the 11-10 game last month. He hasn’t started against Detroit since August 19th, 2011.