2013 Preseason Survey: How Will Indians Do in 2013?

Last week, 15 Cleveland Indians writers representing six different publications participated in a multi-part preseason survey in which we made predictions and offered our opinions about the 2013 Tribe. We’ll be releasing part of the results each day this week as we count down the days until the start of the season—starting today with our basic projections for how the Indians will fare in 2013.

First question: How many games will the Tribe win this year?

Survey says: somewhere in the mid-80’s. Our average projection is 84.5 wins, with a median of 85 and a standard deviation of two games. All but one respondent (Vince Guerrieri from Did the Tribe Win Last Night?) sees the Tribe as better than a .500 team. Geordy Boveroux, Merritt Rohlfing, and myself were the most optimistic with projections of 87 wins.

How will that translate into the AL Central standings?

Looks like second place is a pretty clear consensus. Only Merritt thinks the Indians will win the division, while Vince and Indians Baseball Insider’s Andrew Zajac foresee a third-place finish. (Hey, it could be worse!) Overall, we expect Cleveland to finish five games behind in the AL Central, suggesting it will take 90 games to win the division—an accomplishment none of us expect the Indians to reach.

Now for the big one: Will the Indians make the playoffs?

So…probably not. Merritt thinks the Tribe will take the AL Central, while I (sheepishly) joined Geordy in forecasting a Wild Card berth. Crazier things have happened.

Survey participants: Ed Carroll from Cleveland.com; Steve Eby and Vince Guerrieri from Did the Tribe Win Last Night?; Kevin Dean and Andrew Zajac from Indians Baseball Insider; Nino Colla from The Tribe Daily; TD from WaitingForNextYear; and Geordy Boveroux, Brian Heise, Nick Houghtaling, Steve Kinsella, Jeff Mount, Lewie Pollis, Merritt Rohlfing, and Evan Vogel from Wahoo’s on First.