The Indians have done a fairly decent job of beefing up the heart of their order so far this offseason. The additions of Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher to go along with Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and even Lonnie Chisenhall should make for an intimidating lineup. After all, there’s is a lot of power potential contained within those bats.
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Unfortunately, one pivotal question still remains. With the recent trade of Shin-Soo Choo there is a glaring hole at the top of the lineup that the team has yet to address. Who is going to bat lead-off for this team?
There are any number of candidates to choose from that are already on the roster, so that much is good. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that any of them are acceptable options. Unless Willie Mays Hayes or Kenny Lofton comes walking through the door in Spring Training it’s going to be a struggle to find an internal option who can be the table setter that every competitive team needs.
You could make the case that the role of a leadoff hitter is an outdated idea. There is only one guaranteed at-bat per game in which a leadoff hitter is guaranteed to lead off, so why waste everyone’s time and effort trying to fill the position? Couldn’t a balanced lineup achieve the same overall effectiveness? Shin-Soo Choo was a more than capable leadoff hitter and yet the Indians struggled to score runs and the offense essentially fell apart by mid-July. All are valid points, but the fact remains that every team needs that one guy hitting before the heart of the order that can get on base, wreak some havoc, and guarantee that the power bats in the lineup get opportunities to drive in runs. You know, the job that they’re being paid to do.
So who bats leadoff? Here are the contenders for the title and their qualifications, or lack thereof.
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3. Jason Kipnis: Kipnis is an intriguing option for whom my collegue Steve Kinsella has been petitioning for some time. On the surface, his career OBP of .335 exceeds Brantley’s .329 and Stubbs’ .312. However, as I have mentioned previously, he flourishes in situations with runners on base and flounders in situations with no one on. He bats .273/.364 and .251/.314, respectively, in those situations. With the Indians looking for ways to drive in runs is it worth removing Kipnis’ bat from the middle of the order. Kipnis’ numbers are better than either Brantley or Stubbs when it comes to his position in the batting order. When leading off a game, albeit with a limited sample size, Kipnis is batting .471/.571. When leading off an inning, regardless of his position in the order, he is batting .263/.356. Unfortunately, as the first batter in the lineup Kipnis’ career numbers are an abysmal .202/.281.
Here’s a chart to help sum that all up.
So what does this all mean? For now, it looks as if the Indians’ best option for the leadoff spot as of today is Jason Kipnis. He has the best combination of speed, average, and on-base ability out of anyone on the current roster. Also, his previous success batting in the top spot in the order gives him the edge, at least in my book, until he proves otherwise. The additions of Reynolds and Swisher to the middle of the order also make it easier to move Kipnis up into the top spot without losing much in terms of power potential.
Is it an absolute perfect match made in baseball heaven? No, but unless the Indians decide to get really bold and ink Michael Bourn to a one-year deal Kipnis is probably the best they have. The only question is whether Terry Francona will be willing to ignore the typical leadoff hitter stereotypes and put the right player in the position to succeed. That, folks, remains to be seen.