Pragmatic Predictions for the Indians’ 2012 Opening Day Roster

The Rotation

Justin Masterson: I’d expect his ERA will be closer to his 3.46 mean projected FIP than 3.87, which when combined with some (hopefully) increased run support should boost him to at least 13 or 14 wins. (full profile here)

Ubaldo Jimenez: Jimenez will be better than he looked last year, but even if a large part of his struggles in 2011 were bad luck he’ll probably underperform his context-neutral stats. He’ll be a quality innings eater who prevents runs at about an average rate (say, a 3.80 ERA) and shows occasional flashes of dominance, but there will be at least a couple games this year when you’ll think Joe Borowski is starting for the Tribe. (full profile here)

Derek Lowe: I’m a lot more bullish on Lowe than the projection systems are. I expect Lowe to look more like the pitcher he was in 2010, when he went 16-12 with a 4.00 ERA in 193.2 innings—predicting that he’ll match those numbers is probably too optimistic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in that ballpark. A contending team could do a lot worse than Lowe for a No. 3 starter. (full profile here)

Josh Tomlin: It’s hard to pin down an expected value for Tomlin’s performance. The mean projections (9-9, 4.24 ERA) essentially call for him to repeat his 2011 performance; I’d probably take the under there. That a pitcher with Tomlin’s unique skill set could maintain a low BABIP is definitely plausible, but I want to see him keep it up for at least another season before I fully buy in. Expect some minor regression in 2012, but he’ll still be a very effective back-end starter. (full profile here)

Jeanmar Gomez: I’d probably go with the Marcel projection (7-5, 4.35 ERA) as the best estimate of Gomez’ true talent level. He won a rotation spot out of the gate it’s unlikely he’ll lose it, but based on his competitors’ track records he might not really end up to be the best man for the job. (full profile here)

The Bullpen

Chris Perez: He returns his strikeout rate to a respectable level, which helps to negate the inevitable luck-based regression and keeps his ERA from jumping too much higher than the mid-3.00′s. If last year is any indication Pestano would be a better choice to be the Tribe’s relief ace, but Perez’ experience will keep his job safe, at least for this year. (full profile here)

Vinnie Pestano: Hard as it is to admit, a little bit of regression is probably in order, but something in the range of RotoChamp’s projection (2.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) is probably a good bet. And while there will be times in 2012 when we’ll wish he was the closer, he won’t wrest the job from Perez—at least, not yet. (full profile here)

Tony Sipp: Sipp takes a step back from 2011—even if his strikeout rate rebounds, his walk rate would probably rise with it—but he’s still an effective, if ordinary pitcher. I’d probably take the under on his mean projected 3.87 ERA, but 60 innings at something around that level of performance sounds like a good bet. (full profile here)

Rafael Perez: I’m not sure what all the projection systems’ skepticism is about. Expecting someone with a track record as inconsistent as Perez’ to repeat last year’s performance is probably unwise, but there’s no reason to assume he’s in for a full run’s worth of regression. I’ll take the Bill James projection (3.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but without so many strikeouts. (full profile here)

Joe Smith: Smith’s strikeout, walk, HR/FB, and hit rates all rise at least a little bit. The added strikeouts and walks basically cancel each other out, but the extra balls falling in for hits and leaving the yard take their toll. RotoChamp (3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and Marcel’s (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) projections look like good bets, though Bill James’ projection (3.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) isn’t out of the question. (full profile here)

Dan Wheeler: I like the mean projection here (3.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). Despite his homer-prone nature and the hit his BABIP will take from the Indians’ defense he still misses enough bats and throws enough strikes to be an effective pitcher. Fifty innings with a mid-3.00′s ERA would be a great showing for a minor-league signee. (full profile here)

Jairo Asencio: Asencio really is a giant question mark; he has the least MLB experience of anyone on the 25-man roster, and he was a completely different pitcher when he dominated Triple-A than he was when he was struggling to get big-league batters out. The mean projection here (3.88 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) looks like a good bet, but there’s a pretty big margin of error there. (full profile here)

The Bench

Aaron Cunningham: The mean projection (.245/.310/.398, 100 OPS+) might seem a tad optimistic, but I’ll take it—I’ve been bullish on Cunningham ever since he came to Cleveland and I expect him to be a quietly solid asset for this team in 2012 and down the road. The Indians could have done a lot worse in filling the final spot on their bench. (full profile here)

Lou Marson: I’d say the mean projection (.234/.315/.327, 80 OPS+) looks about right. With Marson is entering what should be his prime I’d take the over if I had to choose, but the average there looks like a pretty good 50th percentile projection. (full profile here)

Jose Lopez: I’d be surprised to see his wRC+ hit 80, and with so many better infielders—Cord Phelps, Donald, Chisenhall, Andy LaRoche, Jack Hannahan (once Chisenhall gets called up)—looking for promotions and playing time, the Indians won’t need him for very long. (full profile here)

Jason Donald: Donald takes over backup duty for Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera. Between that and a smattering of appearances at third base, in the outfield, and as a pinch-runner he plays about 70 games. He’s about a league-average hitter and his defense is acceptable—in other words, he’s an unremarkable player but a great asset to have off the bench. (full profile here)

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