Optimistic Predictions for the Indians’ 2012 Opening Day Roster

Over the last several weeks, we’ve been previewing the Cleveland Indians’ season by profiling every player on the Tribe’s 2012 Opening Day 25-man roster. With the first pitch at Progressive Field just a few hours away, we’re recapping our player previews with optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic predictions for each member of the team.

Here are the best-case scenarios for each 2012 Tribe player.

The Lineup

Carlos Santana: Santana picks up some extra power as he enters his age-26 season while maintaining or even improving upon his already-established plate discipline prowess. The extra power and some better luck push his average closer to the .280 range and his on-base percentage past .400. He makes a run at 40 home runs and the value of his bat is further inflated by playing almost exclusively catcher. An MVP trophy is cast in his honor. (full profile here)

Casey Kotchman: Kotchman’s .335 2011 BABIP wasn’t a fluke—or, at least, the winds of good fortune are still blowing at his back. His plate discipline holds steady and he rediscovers some of the power potential he showed in his youth. No one mistakes him for Prince Fielder, but he’s one of the Tribe’s best hitters while providing the most reliable defense the Indians have seen at first base in years. (full profile here)

Jason Kipnis: Kipnis picks up right where he left off last year. He makes a run at hitting 30 home runs and stealing 20 bases. His walk rate picks up a little as he gets more exposure to major league pitching, and his OPS rises towards .900. His defense is subpar but not abysmal. He is rewarded with a promotion in the batting order and takes his place among the game’s best middle infielders. (full profile here)

Asdrubal Cabrera: Cabrera’s power isn’t just here to stay—as he enters his age-26 season, he adds more. He sees better pitches to hit thanks to greater protection in an improved Indians lineup, and with the experience of another full season under his belt he avoids another late summer collapse. Combine that with his already-fantastic defense and he could win an MVP. (full profile here)

Jack Hannahan: The dream scenario—anticlimactic as it sounds—would really just be one in which Hannahan plays as well as he did in 2011, maybe with a little more plate discipline or power. (full profile here)

Shelley Duncan: Duncan’s power really picked up in September (.602 slugging percentage), and that wasn’t just statistical variation. The 2012 season sees him not just maintaining his new level of production but building on it. He emerges as one of the most powerful hitters in baseball, which helps bring up his walk rate too. Within a few weeks he’s firmly entrenched in the middle of the order and he keeps his starting job even after Grady Sizemore comes back. (full profile here)

Michael Brantley: Brantley shows improvement in each facet of his game—mostly, he hits the ball harder. He ups his power to near-league average levels and (partially as a result) increases his walk rate to the 9-10 percent range. His BABIP rises as he makes better contact and he becomes a worthy top-of-the-order hitter. His range improves with more exposure in center field and even when Grady Sizemore returns he stays in the middle of the big green. He’s no All-Star, but he takes a big step in the right direction and gives himself a strong place to build from as he enters his prime. (full profile here)

Shin-Soo Choo: What 2011? Choo puts last year behind him and picks up where he left off in 2009-10, when (by one measure) he was worth almost 13 wins above replacement. Choo finally earns an All-Star appearance (can you believe he’s never been selected to play in the Midsummer Classic?) and reclaims his place as the most underrated superstar in the game as he posts his third 20/20 season in four years. (full profile here)

Travis Hafner: Hafner hits just as well as he did last year, with the added bonus of bringing his walk rate back up over 10 percent. He stays (relatively) healthy and manages to appear in 120 games. He’s a solid bat in the middle of the order and he comes through with his usual share of late-game heroics. (full profile here)

The Rotation

Justin Masterson: Masterson keeps doin’ what he’s doin’. Essentially it’s 2011 all over again, maybe with something of a rebound in his strikeout rate and some greater run support. He gets an All-Star nod and maybe a couple bottom-ballot Cy Young votes en route to a solid outing in at least one Game One of a playoff series. (full profile here)

Ubaldo Jimenez: It’s 2010 all over again. Jimenez gets his velocity back up and it’s off to the races from there. His work with the Indians’ coaching staff helps him bring his walks under control and get his groundball rate up, while his improved fastball will allow him to induce weaker contact. His fantastic season earns him MVP and Cy Young votes, and no one in Cleveland bemoans the losses of Drew Pomeranz and Alex White. (full profile here)

Derek Lowe: Last year was all about bad luck. He’s not the dominant force he was in his prime, but his ERA falls back to the mid-to-high 3.00 range and he makes his usual 34 starts. The Indians get over 200 innings of above-average run prevention from the pitcher they acquired for almost nothing. (full profile here)

Josh Tomlin: Bill James spells this out pretty well (10-10, 3.73 ERA). Tomlin comes back fully healthy and gets his strikeout rate up to a respectable level while maintaining his stubborn refusal to issue free passes. He continues to induce weak contact and controls the long ball a little bit more and sticks in the rotation for a full season. (full profile here)

Jeanmar Gomez: Gomez wins a rotation spot and never looks back. He throws 200 innings again, but this time they’re all in the majors. He brings his strikeout rate up to a respectable level and induces enough ground balls to maintain an ERA in the high 3.00′s. (full profile here)

The Bullpen

Chris Perez: Perez is fully healthy for Opening Day and reminds everyone why he was once expected to join the pantheon of elite closers. Last year is a thing of the past and he goes back to striking out a batter an inning. He gives the Indians 70 frames with an ERA in the low 2.00′s en route to notching well over 40 saves. (full profile here)

Vinnie Pestano:  It’s 2011 all over again—but better. Not only does Pestano’s strikeout rate hold steady, but his walk rate improves and moves towards the lower rates he had in the upper minors. So utterly does he dominate that he wins the closer’s job and earns a reputation as one of the best firemen in the game. He is rewarded with an All-Star nod and a couple bottom-ballot Cy Young votes. (full profile here)

Tony Sipp: A repeat of 2011 is probably about as good as we can reasonably hope for from Sipp for 2012. His BABIP is bound to rise at least back to its usual .240-.250 level, but if he can regain some of his strikeout stuff and limit the long ball another ERA around 3.00 is a definite possibility. (full profile here)

Rafael Perez: Another 11.0 K/9 rate is out of the question, but there’s at least some chance Perez can get back to the days of striking out a batter an inning. He keeps his BB/9 rate under 3.0 and continues to be stingy with the long ball, giving the Indians 70 innings with an ERA in the low 2.00′s. (full profile here)

Joe Smith: Encore! Smith plays like it’s 2011 all over again. There’s no way his 2.2 percent HR/FB rate is sustainable, but he makes up for the couple extra dingers by reclaiming some of the strikeouts he lost last year (6.0 K/9, down from his 7.9 previous career mark) and gives the Indians 70 more innings with an ERA in the low 2.00′s. (full profile here)

Dan Wheeler: Bill James pretty much hits the nail on the head here (2.80 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). A 2.80 ERA would be Wheeler’s best since 2006. A few more innings or a little better home run prevention would be nice, but if he can do that he’ll be a fantastic addition to the Bullpen Mafia. (full profile here)

Jairo Asencio: You see his Triple-A numbers from last year (1.81 ERA, 26 saves)? Well, that’s not happening in the majors, but even after adjusting for the superior competition there’s still a relief ace somewhere within him. He strikes out more than a batter an inning while keeping the walks down to a manageable rate, and as a result his ERA settles in the low-to-mid-2.00′s. He gets some Rookie of the Year votes and earns a permanent position in the Bullpen Mafia. (full profile here)