2 reasons the Guardians have what it takes to win the AL Central, 2 reasons they don't

Don’t look now, but the Cleveland Guardians are right in the thick of the American League Central hunt. After trailing the Tigers by as many as 15 1/2 games in the middle of July, the Guardians enter play today trailing Detroit by just six games ahead of a crucial six-game homestand against two National League East opponents who are under .500. 

Here’s a look at two reasons why the Guardians have what it takes to catch up to Detroit — as well as two reasons why their comeback bid could come up short. 

Do the Guardians now have what it takes to win the AL Central?

Why they have what it takes: José Ramírez

A simple reason, sure, but still an impactful one. 

Ramírez is now slashing .289/.365/.509 with 23 home runs, 61 RBI and 32 steals, while being worth 4.9 bWAR. He’s everything you want in a franchise player, and the Guardians’ lineup is at its best when he’s causing destruction at the top of it. 

While the Tigers have some solid players on their roster, none of them have the kind of star power that Ramírez has, which could end up making a difference as the season goes on. 

Ramírez’s presence in the lineup has plenty of latent benefit to the rest of the offense as well. Even if Ramírez hits a bit of a cold stretch, opposing pitchers will still be careful with Ramírez, which means hitters like Kyle Manzardo, Daniel Schneemann and C.J. Kayfus will get plenty of hittable pitches and opportunities with runners on base. 

Why they don’t have what it takes: An All-World closer

While the Guardians’ bullpen has picked up the slack since Emmanuel Clase was suspended in the middle of July, they have very little room for error thanks to the suspension, which means that it just takes one implosion for things to unravel. 

Kolby Allard, Matt Festa and Jakob Junis have handled the middle-leverage innings now that Cade Smith and Nic Enright have been promoted to shutdown duty, but they’re all outperforming their career marks. 

While it’s worth noting the Guardians’ have the sixth-best bullpen ERA in baseball (3.50) compared to Detroit’s 19th-best mark (4.19), it’s only fair to assume that the loss of Clase will eventually hurt the Guardians. The Tigers’ have built a big enough advantage in the division to have some room for error if their bullpen blows a game or two. The Guardians don’t have that luxury. 

Why they have what it takes: Their starting pitchers are going deep into games

As pointed out by The Athletic’s Zack Mesiel, Cleveland starters entered play on Sunday second in baseball in innings per start over the last five weeks, which has helped ease the pressure on their short-handed bullpen. 

That should be a trend that won’t be stopping any time soon.

Gavin Williams is beginning to look like a bonafide ace and has gone at least six innings in each of his last four starts, Slade Cecconi has gone 7+ innings in four of his starts this year despite not having overpowering stuff, and Logan Allen has worked into the fifth inning in all 11 of his starts since he spent a week in the bullpen.  

In fact, the one starter who has struggled the most has been Tanner Bibee (4.60), who has been a victim of bad luck (3.72 expected ERA) as much as anything else. But even with those struggles, he’s still gone at least five innings in all but five of his starts this season.

The Guardians’ rotation has proven that it has the stuff to keep Cleveland in the game, and the offense has done a good job producing enough runs to make that hard work stand up. 

Why they don’t have what it takes: The offense could run out of gas

While Ramírez has played at an All-Star pace this year, he wasn’t getting much help from his teammates prior to their hot stretch over the past month (Ramírez, Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo are still the only three Guardians with an OPS+ above league average). 

The Guardians were able to go 5-1 on their last road trip despite getting next to no production from Kwan and Ramírez, but it’ll be tough for the Guardians to keep their red-hot pace up if those two don’t get going. 

On the other side, all but two of Detroit’s regulars this season have been above league average by measure of OPS+. The Guardians were able to cut into the Tigers’ lead in the division thanks to Detroit going through an offensive cold slump, and the Guardians will need to avoid going on a cold slump of their own if they want to stay in the hunt for the division crown.